HOU121
FINAL
114ATL
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Houston Rockets vs Atlanta Hawks — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
2-0
121
VS
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
2-0
114
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 117.0 – Atlanta Hawks 116.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Rockets won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
235

Margin of Victory — Atlanta Hawks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
52%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 235.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantPF
24.0
Alperen ŞengünC
23.0
Amen ThompsonSF
17.7
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
17.0
Reed SheppardPG
11.0
ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
21.7
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
21.0
Dyson DanielsSG
16.3
CJ McCollumPG
16.3
Onyeka OkongwuC
8.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
HOU
121.00
8th / 30
Points
ATL
124.67
T-3rd / 30
HOU
43.00
T-16th / 30
Rebounds
ATL
44.00
T-14th / 30
HOU
27.67
8th / 30
Assists
ATL
33.33
1st / 30
HOU
97.93
27th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ATL
101.21
16th / 30
HOU
58.04%
5th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ATL
56.05%
7th / 30
HOU
13.18%
12th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ATL
11.74%
8th / 30
HOU
31.93%
8th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ATL
31.01%
9th / 30
HOU
.310
15th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ATL
.281
21st / 30
HOU
123.56
3rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
123.17
4th / 30
HOU
113.69
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
107.69
7th / 30
HOU
+9.87
9th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ATL
+15.48
4th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.20%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.04%7th/30
13.6212th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.826th/30
32.6823rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.815th/30
41.67%T-2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.62%14th/30
29.958th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.6410th/30
54.127th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.7318th/30
55.35%14th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
59.60%6th/30
22.818th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.4319th/30
26.8915th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.0216th/30
84.81%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.68%21st/30
12.9414th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.1712th/30
30.9819th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.3024th/30
9.5312th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.535th/30
3.7423rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
2.9627th/30
14.9812th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.838th/30
21.103rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.0422nd/30
Opponent
47.15%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.68%8th/30
12.2516th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.5117th/30
42.2126th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.5024th/30
29.03%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.16%8th/30
29.9524th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.037th/30
47.319th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.464th/30
63.31%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.30%20th/30
17.025th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.0916th/30
24.5113th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.3712th/30
69.44%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.43%24th/30
11.578th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.5023rd/30
27.573rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.318th/30
10.5522nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.579th/30
3.065th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6112th/30
16.6813th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
19.435th/30
24.1718th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.748th/30
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