BKN121
FINAL
125CLE
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Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
0-1
121
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
0-1
125
Model expected score: Brooklyn Nets 111.5 – Cleveland Cavaliers 122.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 78%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
246

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
23%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 246.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 240
37% over ✓63% under
O/U LINE 250
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Julius RandlePF
28.0
Michael Porter Jr.SF
27.0
Egor DëminPG
13.0
Day'Ron SharpeC
7.5
Keon EllisSG
6.5
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.0
Evan MobleyPF
19.0
Jarrett AllenC
17.5
James HardenPG
14.0
Peyton WatsonSF
9.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BKN
112.00
T-19th / 30
Points
CLE
115.50
14th / 30
BKN
43.00
T-16th / 30
Rebounds
CLE
45.50
12th / 30
BKN
22.50
28th / 30
Assists
CLE
24.50
20th / 30
BKN
103.04
9th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CLE
107.58
1st / 30
BKN
51.12%
19th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CLE
54.52%
12th / 30
BKN
16.61%
26th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CLE
18.41%
30th / 30
BKN
30.85%
11th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CLE
22.62%
26th / 30
BKN
.292
19th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CLE
.398
3rd / 30
BKN
108.70
23rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
107.36
24th / 30
BKN
114.04
17th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
109.22
9th / 30
BKN
-5.34
19th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CLE
-1.86
14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
42.13%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.59%11th/30
15.535th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.6922nd/30
38.827th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.1425th/30
40.00%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.33%15th/30
20.8730th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.0322nd/30
47.5624th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.0126th/30
43.88%29th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.57%11th/30
20.3814th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.247th/30
25.2321st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.675th/30
80.77%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.76%18th/30
14.078th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.8328th/30
27.6629th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.469th/30
8.7316th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3718th/30
2.9129th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
7.903rd/30
19.4127th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
20.4528th/30
26.6928th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.7019th/30
Opponent
47.09%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.63%5th/30
15.0426th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.5518th/30
41.7325th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.7914th/30
36.05%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.06%19th/30
24.265th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.108th/30
41.731st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.5219th/30
58.14%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.79%3rd/30
20.3817th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.3820th/30
25.7216th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.4919th/30
79.25%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.70%21st/30
11.6510th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.5516th/30
31.5414th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.2110th/30
8.2513th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.7619th/30
6.7925th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
1.391st/30
20.872nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8016th/30
24.7522nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.6321st/30
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