MIA110
FINAL
115CHA
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Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
0-2
110
VS
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
1-1
115
Model expected score: Miami Heat 116.5 – Charlotte Hornets 119.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hornets 58%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hornets won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
225

Margin of Victory — Charlotte Hornets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
42%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 225.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
80% over ✓20% under
O/U LINE 230
62% over38% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
28.3
Davion MitchellPG
17.0
Bam AdebayoC
13.0
Klay ThompsonSF
10.0
Andrew WigginsSF
7.7
CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Naz ReidC
20.0
Brandon MillerSF
19.3
Dennis SchröderPG
16.0
Moussa DiabatéC
8.7
Sion JamesSG
2.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
109.00
T-24th / 30
Points
CHA
102.00
29th / 30
MIA
40.00
T-27th / 30
Rebounds
CHA
46.00
11th / 30
MIA
24.33
21st / 30
Assists
CHA
23.00
T-26th / 30
MIA
102.63
10th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHA
99.07
23rd / 30
MIA
49.44%
23rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHA
48.51%
27th / 30
MIA
12.40%
9th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHA
17.34%
27th / 30
MIA
21.13%
28th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHA
32.35%
7th / 30
MIA
.294
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHA
.194
29th / 30
MIA
106.20
26th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
102.96
30th / 30
MIA
121.47
26th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
114.74
18th / 30
MIA
-15.26
28th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHA
-11.78
25th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
42.75%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.67%30th/30
11.6919th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.1310th/30
38.658th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.781st/30
30.25%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.58%23rd/30
25.6625th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
22.5429th/30
48.7220th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.4030th/30
52.67%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.17%19th/30
19.8115th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.4827th/30
25.6619th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
17.5030th/30
77.22%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
88.46%1st/30
9.7423rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.806th/30
29.2327th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.6314th/30
7.7922nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.3928th/30
4.8716th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3812th/30
13.979th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
20.5229th/30
24.0321st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.204th/30
Opponent
47.64%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.36%17th/30
17.8629th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.4725th/30
42.5528th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.3519th/30
41.98%30th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.74%26th/30
24.686th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.2411th/30
46.778th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.4713th/30
52.78%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.00%12th/30
18.519th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.8411th/30
24.037th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.239th/30
77.03%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.78%17th/30
12.6718th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.435th/30
36.3829th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.9611th/30
7.156th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.1027th/30
4.5511th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7113th/30
15.9114th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8115th/30
23.3813th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.2211th/30
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