MEM111
FINAL
108GS
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
1-0
111
VS
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
0-1
108
Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 115.2 – Golden State Warriors 119.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Warriors 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Grizzlies won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
219

Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
38%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 219.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromeSG
36.5
Cameron BoozerPF
16.0
Jaylen WellsSG
14.5
Cedric CowardSG
7.0
Zach EdeyC
7.0
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
23.5
Yaxel LendeborgSF
18.7
Brandin PodziemskiSG
18.0
Brandon WilliamsPG
12.7
De'Anthony MeltonPG
11.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MEM
117.00
11th / 30
Points
GS
106.50
23rd / 30
MEM
51.00
T-4th / 30
Rebounds
GS
38.50
28th / 30
MEM
25.00
16th / 30
Assists
GS
24.00
T-18th / 30
MEM
98.83
22nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
GS
97.25
25th / 30
MEM
54.75%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
GS
47.43%
26th / 30
MEM
15.90%
23rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
GS
14.55%
17th / 30
MEM
37.08%
3rd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
GS
34.74%
5th / 30
MEM
.279
21st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
GS
.320
13th / 30
MEM
118.39
7th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
109.51
17th / 30
MEM
106.75
9th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
122.36
27th / 30
MEM
+11.64
8th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
GS
-12.85
23rd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.93%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
41.14%25th/30
14.178th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.3117th/30
36.9314th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.597th/30
38.36%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
28.57%18th/30
28.3312th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.7123rd/30
53.639th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.3815th/30
52.83%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.02%23rd/30
19.2318th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.165th/30
25.3019th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.797th/30
76.00%T-14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.93%5th/30
16.705th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
16.974th/30
34.917th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
22.6230th/30
7.5921st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
13.881st/30
7.084th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.1122nd/30
19.2324th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.4819th/30
28.3330th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.6516th/30
Opponent
43.67%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
51.50%30th/30
12.6519th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3720th/30
36.9319th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.4510th/30
34.25%18th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.81%26th/30
22.262nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.8525th/30
43.013rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.4116th/30
51.76%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.00%25th/30
24.2927th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.5617th/30
31.3726th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.1912th/30
77.42%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
81.63%21st/30
11.6410th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.4022nd/30
28.333rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.8814th/30
10.6222nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.2518th/30
9.1129th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.1722nd/30
18.726th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
22.112nd/30
25.3024th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
28.2828th/30
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