CHI132
FINAL
125MIL
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Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
0-1
132
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
0-1
125
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 116.5 – Milwaukee Bucks 118.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Bulls won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
257

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
44%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 257.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 250
22% over ✓78% under
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Caleb WilsonPF
22.3
Norman PowellSG
19.3
Matas BuzelisSF
15.0
Jalen SmithC
14.3
Josh GiddeyPG
5.7
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.7
Jaime Jaquez Jr.SF
20.7
Ryan RollinsPG
11.7
Kyle KuzmaPF
11.0
Myles TurnerC
7.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHI
112.00
15th / 30
Points
MIL
120.50
8th / 30
CHI
50.50
T-6th / 30
Rebounds
MIL
42.50
T-16th / 30
CHI
22.50
23rd / 30
Assists
MIL
28.50
T-4th / 30
CHI
108.16
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIL
104.43
5th / 30
CHI
44.26%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIL
56.83%
7th / 30
CHI
15.90%
22nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIL
14.61%
18th / 30
CHI
33.33%
T-6th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIL
27.59%
14th / 30
CHI
.421
2nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIL
.268
26th / 30
CHI
103.55
26th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
115.38
13th / 30
CHI
120.19
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
124.48
29th / 30
CHI
-16.64
27th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIL
-9.10
21st / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
39.89%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.54%10th/30
7.4028th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.285th/30
37.4513th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.655th/30
19.75%29th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.08%8th/30
26.3519th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.3725th/30
47.1525th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.9626th/30
55.88%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.21%14th/30
28.662nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.8026th/30
35.602nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.4627th/30
80.52%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
67.35%28th/30
15.727th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4915th/30
30.9715th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.2126th/30
7.4023rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
4.7930th/30
5.0916th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.8323rd/30
18.9523rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.7617th/30
24.9621st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
27.7728th/30
Opponent
47.37%19th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.46%25th/30
13.4121st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.626th/30
35.6016th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.9513th/30
37.66%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
24.66%4th/30
28.2016th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
34.9530th/30
52.2417th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.1418th/30
53.98%15th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
65.77%30th/30
23.5826th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
28.7329th/30
33.2828th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.9929th/30
70.83%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
84.51%25th/30
12.4816th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.9714th/30
31.4413th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.1610th/30
9.2517th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.0520th/30
5.5520th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.2223rd/30
13.4124th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.9729th/30
25.4325th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.595th/30
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