DET128
FINAL
111MIA
← back to predictions

Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

FINAL
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
1-0
128
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
0-1
111
Model expected score: Detroit Pistons 118.4 – Miami Heat 116.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pistons won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
239

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
56%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 239.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
59% over ✓41% under
O/U LINE 240
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
19.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
19.0
John CollinsPF
14.5
Jalen DurenC
13.0
Ausar ThompsonSF
7.5
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
28.3
Davion MitchellPG
17.0
Bam AdebayoC
13.0
Klay ThompsonSF
10.0
Andrew WigginsSF
7.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DET
124.50
4th / 30
Points
MIA
108.50
20th / 30
DET
51.00
T-4th / 30
Rebounds
MIA
41.50
22nd / 30
DET
30.50
3rd / 30
Assists
MIA
25.50
15th / 30
DET
101.08
16th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
104.14
6th / 30
DET
58.57%
4th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
48.91%
18th / 30
DET
15.39%
19th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
12.67%
10th / 30
DET
30.95%
9th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
22.45%
25th / 30
DET
.297
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.295
19th / 30
DET
123.17
4th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
104.18
24th / 30
DET
110.81
13th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
124.35
28th / 30
DET
+12.37
7th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
-20.16
28th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.14%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.62%22nd/30
16.324th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.0418th/30
38.589th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.336th/30
42.31%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
27.38%20th/30
26.2220th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.4118th/30
47.9822nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.5324th/30
54.64%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.56%T-12th/30
21.778th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.2421st/30
25.7217th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.9315th/30
84.62%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
70.37%26th/30
12.8612th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.5621st/30
37.591st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.2925th/30
7.4222nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.2026th/30
5.949th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8019th/30
17.8121st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.4010th/30
22.7513th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.4918th/30
Opponent
41.58%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.73%26th/30
15.8327th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
18.7229th/30
46.0027th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.2524th/30
34.41%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
44.32%30th/30
23.254th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.937th/30
47.9810th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.539th/30
48.45%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.55%T-16th/30
16.827th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.325th/30
24.2410th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.537th/30
69.39%T-4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
69.39%T-4th/30
14.8423rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.9221st/30
28.696th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
36.4929th/30
8.9013th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.1215th/30
4.9519th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.3211th/30
12.8627th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8416th/30
24.2421st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.0119th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service