SAC96
FINAL
121LAC
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Sacramento Kings vs LA Clippers — Win Probability

FINAL
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
0-0
96
VS
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
0-0
121
Model expected score: Sacramento Kings 113.4 – LA Clippers 121.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Keegan MurrayDay-To-Day
  • Domantas SabonisDay-To-Day
  • Ben SimmonsOut
LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Clippers 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Clippers won by 25
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — LA Clippers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
28%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
17%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSG
25.0
Darius Acuff Jr.PG
22.5
Domantas SabonisC
20.5
Keegan MurrayPF
7.0
De'Andre HunterSF
5.0
LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius GarlandPG
28.0
Rui HachimuraPF
13.0
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
12.0
Isaiah JacksonC
9.5
Kris DunnPG
7.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
SAC
96.00
26th / 28
Points
LAC
121.00
T-11th / 28
SAC
42.00
T-17th / 28
Rebounds
LAC
49.00
T-7th / 28
SAC
22.00
T-21st / 28
Assists
LAC
29.00
T-5th / 28
SAC
100.95
T-15th / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAC
100.95
T-15th / 28
SAC
47.06%
23rd / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAC
60.98%
3rd / 28
SAC
14.87%
19th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAC
15.09%
20th / 28
SAC
22.45%
22nd / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAC
26.19%
17th / 28
SAC
.329
11th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAC
.378
8th / 28
SAC
95.10
26th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
119.86
10th / 28
SAC
119.86
19th / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAC
95.10
3rd / 28
SAC
-24.76
26th / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAC
+24.76
3rd / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
42.35%22nd/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
52.44%3rd/28
7.9224th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.878th/28
27.7428th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.6713th/28
28.57%21st/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.00%6th/28
27.7412th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.7310th/28
56.469th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.5621st/28
49.12%21st/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
61.70%7th/28
15.8525th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.8013th/28
27.7412th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.719th/28
57.14%28th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
67.74%24th/28
10.90T-17th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.90T-17th/28
30.7117th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
37.645th/28
9.9113th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
13.873rd/28
0.0028th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9515th/28
16.84T-17th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.84T-17th/28
22.7810th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.7716th/28
Opponent
52.44%26th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.35%7th/28
13.8721st/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
7.925th/28
34.6716th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.741st/28
40.00%23rd/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
28.57%8th/28
28.7319th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.7417th/28
46.568th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.4620th/28
61.70%22nd/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
49.12%8th/28
20.8016th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.854th/28
30.7120th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.7417th/28
67.74%5th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
57.14%1st/28
10.90T-11th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.90T-11th/28
37.6424th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.7112th/28
13.8726th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.9116th/28
4.9514th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
0.001st/28
16.84T-11th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.84T-11th/28
23.7716th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.7810th/28
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