IND123
FINAL
120NO
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Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
0-0
123
VS
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
0-0
120
Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 117.2 – New Orleans Pelicans 120.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pelicans 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Pacers won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
243

Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
40%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 243.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 230
66% over ✓34% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
26.5
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
20.5
Andrew NembhardSG
17.0
Ivica ZubacC
12.5
Kelly Oubre Jr.SF
3.5
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
20.7
Dejounte MurrayPG
20.3
Trey Murphy IIISF
15.3
Yves MissiC
9.5
DeAndre JordanC
9.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
IND
123.00
T-9th / 28
Points
NO
120.00
13th / 28
IND
43.00
T-15th / 28
Rebounds
NO
49.00
T-7th / 28
IND
29.00
T-5th / 28
Assists
NO
23.00
T-19th / 28
IND
103.54
T-7th / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
NO
103.54
T-7th / 28
IND
57.22%
7th / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
NO
48.31%
21st / 28
IND
11.23%
8th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
NO
11.74%
10th / 28
IND
20.45%
25th / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
NO
29.17%
12th / 28
IND
.322
13th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
NO
.416
6th / 28
IND
118.80
11th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
115.90
12th / 28
IND
115.90
17th / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
118.80
18th / 28
IND
+2.90
14th / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
NO
-2.90
15th / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
52.22%5th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.70%21st/28
8.6922nd/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.6620th/28
28.98T-23rd/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.98T-23rd/28
30.00%19th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.33%T-14th/28
36.702nd/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.0415th/28
57.955th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.987th/28
63.33%5th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.46%23rd/28
19.3215th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
32.842nd/28
28.0110th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.745th/28
68.97%23rd/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
91.89%1st/28
8.6923rd/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.5212th/28
32.8413th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.809th/28
8.6917th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.629th/28
3.8620th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.809th/28
12.565th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.529th/28
25.1118th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.1812th/28
Opponent
42.70%8th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
52.22%24th/28
9.669th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.697th/28
28.98T-5th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.98T-5th/28
33.33%T-14th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.00%10th/28
27.0414th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
36.7027th/28
56.9822nd/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.9524th/28
47.46%6th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
63.33%24th/28
32.8427th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3214th/28
35.7424th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.0119th/28
91.89%28th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
68.97%6th/28
13.5217th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.696th/28
33.8020th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8416th/28
10.6220th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6912th/28
5.8020th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.869th/28
13.5220th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.5624th/28
23.1812th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.1118th/28
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