UTAH103
FINAL
123MEM
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Utah Jazz vs Memphis Grizzlies — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
0-0
103
VS
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
0-0
123
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 118.6 – Memphis Grizzlies 121.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Grizzlies 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Grizzlies won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
226

Margin of Victory — Memphis Grizzlies (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
41%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
12%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 226.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 230
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
16% over84% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Keyonte GeorgePG
20.5
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
19.5
Lauri MarkkanenPF
17.0
Darryn PetersonSG
12.0
Jaxson HayesC
11.0
MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromeSG
36.5
Cameron BoozerPF
16.0
Jaylen WellsSG
14.5
Cedric CowardSG
7.0
Zach EdeyC
7.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
UTAH
103.00
T-23rd / 28
Points
MEM
123.00
T-9th / 28
UTAH
38.00
T-24th / 28
Rebounds
MEM
55.00
3rd / 28
UTAH
25.00
T-16th / 28
Assists
MEM
23.00
T-19th / 28
UTAH
101.13
T-13th / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MEM
101.13
T-13th / 28
UTAH
54.00%
14th / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MEM
54.30%
12th / 28
UTAH
16.74%
25th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MEM
10.99%
5th / 28
UTAH
11.11%
27th / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MEM
31.25%
T-8th / 28
UTAH
.440
5th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MEM
.301
17th / 28
UTAH
101.85
22nd / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
121.63
8th / 28
UTAH
121.63
21st / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MEM
101.85
7th / 28
UTAH
-19.78
23rd / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MEM
+19.78
6th / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
46.67%13th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.31%11th/28
10.8816th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.8510th/28
31.6420th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.6214th/28
34.38%13th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.24%10th/28
23.7325th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.656th/28
42.5227th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
58.344th/28
55.81%10th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.54%15th/28
21.75T-9th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.75T-9th/28
32.638th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.6913th/28
66.67%25th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.57%11th/28
4.9427th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.837th/28
32.6314th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
39.552nd/28
8.9016th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9119th/28
11.871st/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.927th/28
17.8022nd/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.857th/28
22.749th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.7122nd/28
Opponent
47.31%18th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.67%16th/28
12.8519th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.8813th/28
33.6215th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.649th/28
38.24%19th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.38%16th/28
30.6523rd/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.734th/28
58.3425th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.522nd/28
52.54%14th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.81%19th/28
21.75T-19th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.75T-19th/28
27.6916th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.6321st/28
78.57%18th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
66.67%4th/28
14.8322nd/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
4.942nd/28
39.5527th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.6315th/28
7.9110th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9013th/28
6.9222nd/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
11.8728th/28
12.8522nd/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.807th/28
25.7122nd/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.749th/28
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