CHI92
FINAL
135TOR
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Chicago Bulls vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
0-0
92
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
0-0
135
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 113.2 – Toronto Raptors 121.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Raptors won by 43
COMBINED SCORE
227

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
28%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
18%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 227.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Caleb WilsonPF
22.3
Norman PowellSG
19.3
Matas BuzelisSF
15.0
Jalen SmithC
14.3
Josh GiddeyPG
5.7
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Scottie BarnesPF
25.5
RJ BarrettSF
21.5
Kawhi LeonardSF
19.5
Immanuel QuickleyPG
17.5
Jakob PoeltlC
4.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
CHI
92.00
27th / 28
Points
TOR
135.00
1st / 28
CHI
57.00
1st / 28
Rebounds
TOR
51.00
6th / 28
CHI
16.00
27th / 28
Assists
TOR
31.00
3rd / 28
CHI
108.07
T-3rd / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
TOR
108.07
T-3rd / 28
CHI
34.12%
28th / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
TOR
50.00%
20th / 28
CHI
20.35%
28th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
TOR
7.80%
1st / 28
CHI
37.50%
3rd / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
TOR
30.77%
10th / 28
CHI
.553
1st / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
TOR
.469
3rd / 28
CHI
85.13
28th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
124.91
6th / 28
CHI
124.91
23rd / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
85.13
1st / 28
CHI
-39.79
27th / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
TOR
+39.79
2nd / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
31.76%28th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.90%19th/28
3.7028th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.2521st/28
33.3115th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.6825th/28
11.11%28th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.26%17th/28
21.2828th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.465th/28
45.3425th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
61.992nd/28
46.94%24th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.75%19th/28
31.464th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
34.241st/28
43.491st/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.562nd/28
72.34%20th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.43%9th/28
19.431st/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.808th/28
33.3112th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.3915th/28
5.5527th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
13.882nd/28
4.6317th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.5510th/28
24.9828th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
9.251st/28
31.4627th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
26.8324th/28
Opponent
44.90%10th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
31.76%1st/28
9.258th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
3.701st/28
28.684th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.3114th/28
32.26%12th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
11.11%1st/28
31.4624th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
21.281st/28
61.9927th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.344th/28
50.75%10th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
46.94%5th/28
34.2428th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
31.4625th/28
42.5627th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
43.4928th/28
80.43%20th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.34%9th/28
14.8021st/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
19.4328th/28
32.3914th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.3117th/28
13.8827th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.552nd/28
5.5519th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6312th/28
9.2528th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
24.981st/28
26.8324th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
31.4627th/28
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