CHA110
FINAL
103BKN
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Charlotte Hornets vs Brooklyn Nets — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
0-0
110
VS
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
0-0
103
Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 116.1 – Brooklyn Nets 108.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hornets 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hornets won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
213

Margin of Victory — Brooklyn Nets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
70%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
9%
Won by 15-21
4%
Won by 21+
2%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 213.

O/U LINE 210
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 220 MODEL'S PICK
60% over40% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
9% over91% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Naz ReidC
20.0
Brandon MillerSF
19.3
Dennis SchröderPG
16.0
Moussa DiabatéC
8.7
Sion JamesSG
2.0
BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Julius RandlePF
28.0
Michael Porter Jr.SF
27.0
Egor DëminPG
13.0
Day'Ron SharpeC
7.5
Keon EllisSG
6.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
CHA
110.00
T-17th / 28
Points
BKN
103.00
T-23rd / 28
CHA
44.00
T-13th / 28
Rebounds
BKN
38.00
T-24th / 28
CHA
26.00
15th / 28
Assists
BKN
22.00
T-21st / 28
CHA
99.09
T-19th / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BKN
99.09
T-19th / 28
CHA
52.15%
19th / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BKN
52.50%
18th / 28
CHA
16.72%
24th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BKN
19.47%
27th / 28
CHA
35.71%
5th / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BKN
27.50%
14th / 28
CHA
.161
28th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BKN
.313
15th / 28
CHA
111.01
18th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
103.95
20th / 28
CHA
103.95
9th / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
111.01
11th / 28
CHA
+7.06
11th / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BKN
-7.06
18th / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
44.09%20th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.00%18th/28
15.146th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.1112th/28
48.442nd/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.2821st/28
31.25%18th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.71%9th/28
26.2416th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.2223rd/28
45.4124th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.4516th/28
57.78%9th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
48.98%22nd/28
13.1228th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.1717th/28
15.1428th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.2320th/28
86.67%5th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.00%18th/28
15.146th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.1016th/28
29.2718th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.2524th/28
9.0815th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.0623rd/28
4.0419th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0514th/28
20.1825th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
22.2027th/28
23.2113th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.2319th/28
Opponent
45.00%11th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.09%9th/28
12.1117th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.1423rd/28
31.288th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.4427th/28
38.71%20th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.25%11th/28
24.226th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.2413th/28
49.4513th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
45.415th/28
48.98%7th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.78%20th/28
19.1712th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
13.121st/28
25.239th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
15.141st/28
76.00%11th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
86.67%24th/28
11.1013th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.1423rd/28
27.255th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.2711th/28
7.066th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.0814th/28
5.0515th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.0410th/28
22.202nd/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
20.184th/28
25.2319th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.2113th/28
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