MIL116
FINAL
128WSH
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Washington Wizards — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
0-0
116
VS
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
0-0
128
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 117.5 – Washington Wizards 116.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bucks 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Wizards won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
244

Margin of Victory — Washington Wizards (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
53%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
14%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 244.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
77% over ✓23% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
58% over ✓42% under
O/U LINE 240
38% over ✓62% under
O/U LINE 250
20% over80% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyler HerroSG
23.7
Jaime Jaquez Jr.SF
20.7
Ryan RollinsPG
11.7
Kyle KuzmaPF
11.0
Myles TurnerC
7.7
WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Trae YoungPG
22.3
Anthony DavisPF
20.7
Kyshawn GeorgeSG
17.0
Bilal CoulibalySF
9.7
Alex SarrC
7.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
MIL
116.00
T-14th / 28
Points
WSH
128.00
T-4th / 28
MIL
41.00
20th / 28
Rebounds
WSH
44.00
T-13th / 28
MIL
28.00
T-7th / 28
Assists
WSH
28.00
T-7th / 28
MIL
100.49
T-17th / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
WSH
100.49
T-17th / 28
MIL
53.30%
15th / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
WSH
55.81%
10th / 28
MIL
13.66%
14th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
WSH
9.56%
3rd / 28
MIL
28.89%
13th / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
WSH
30.00%
11th / 28
MIL
.253
24th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
WSH
.477
2nd / 28
MIL
115.43
13th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
127.37
4th / 28
MIL
127.37
25th / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
115.43
16th / 28
MIL
-11.94
21st / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
WSH
+11.94
8th / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
45.05%17th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
52.33%4th/28
14.937th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
5.9727th/28
40.806th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.8627th/28
36.59%12th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
21.43%26th/28
25.8717th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
38.811st/28
49.7614th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.726th/28
52.00%18th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
67.24%2nd/28
18.9118th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
31.843rd/28
22.8924th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.803rd/28
82.61%8th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.05%12th/28
12.9413th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.9415th/28
27.8621st/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.8416th/28
4.9828th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.958th/28
1.9925th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.976th/28
15.9216th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
10.954th/28
31.8428th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8911th/28
Opponent
52.33%25th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.05%12th/28
5.972nd/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.9322nd/28
27.862nd/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.8023rd/28
21.43%3rd/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.59%17th/28
38.8128th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.8712th/28
57.7223rd/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.7615th/28
67.24%27th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.00%11th/28
31.8426th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.9111th/28
40.8026th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.895th/28
78.05%17th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.61%21st/28
11.9414th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.9416th/28
31.8413th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.868th/28
10.9521st/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
4.981st/28
6.9723rd/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
1.994th/28
10.9525th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.9213th/28
22.8911th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
31.8428th/28
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