ATL132
FINAL
125ORL
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Atlanta Hawks vs Orlando Magic — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
0-0
132
VS
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
0-0
125
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 117.1 – Orlando Magic 118.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Magic 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Hawks won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
257

Margin of Victory — Orlando Magic (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
47%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 257.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over ✓60% under
O/U LINE 250
22% over ✓78% under
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
21.7
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
21.0
Dyson DanielsSG
16.3
CJ McCollumPG
16.3
Onyeka OkongwuC
8.7
ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
24.5
Wendell Carter Jr.C
21.0
Franz WagnerSF
20.0
Desmond BaneSG
11.5
Jalen SuggsPG
10.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
ATL
132.00
2nd / 28
Points
ORL
125.00
7th / 28
ATL
42.00
T-17th / 28
Rebounds
ORL
39.00
T-21st / 28
ATL
28.00
T-7th / 28
Assists
ORL
30.00
4th / 28
ATL
109.10
T-1st / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ORL
109.10
T-1st / 28
ATL
56.67%
8th / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ORL
55.88%
9th / 28
ATL
13.84%
16th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ORL
16.37%
23rd / 28
ATL
26.83%
15th / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ORL
22.50%
21st / 28
ATL
.400
7th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ORL
.459
4th / 28
ATL
120.99
9th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
114.57
15th / 28
ATL
114.57
14th / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ORL
120.99
20th / 28
ATL
+6.42
12th / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ORL
-6.42
17th / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
48.89%7th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.24%8th/28
12.8311th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.9213th/28
33.0017th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.669th/28
38.89%8th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.50%16th/28
27.5013th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.6618th/28
49.5015th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.2528th/28
55.56%11th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
62.22%6th/28
27.50T-6th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
27.50T-6th/28
33.006th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.754th/28
83.33%T-6th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.92%T-15th/28
10.0820th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.2524th/28
28.4120th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.5023rd/28
8.2518th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.1714th/28
2.75T-21st/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
2.75T-21st/28
15.5814th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.3324th/28
27.5026th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.6621st/28
Opponent
48.24%21st/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.89%22nd/28
11.9216th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.8318th/28
36.6620th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.0012th/28
32.50%13th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
38.89%21st/28
25.6611th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.5016th/28
41.251st/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.5014th/28
62.22%23rd/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.56%18th/28
27.50T-22nd/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
27.50T-22nd/28
35.7525th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.0023rd/28
76.92%T-13th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
83.33%T-22nd/28
8.255th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.089th/28
27.506th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.419th/28
9.1715th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2511th/28
2.75T-7th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
2.75T-7th/28
18.335th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.5815th/28
25.6621st/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
27.5026th/28
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