MIN115
FINAL
109NO
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability

FINAL
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
6-3
115
VS
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
4-4
109
Market line: Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5, total 230.5 · Model expected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 117.0 – New Orleans Pelicans 113.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut
NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Timberwolves 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Timberwolves won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
224

Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
60%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21
6%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (230.5). The real combined score was 224.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
14% over86% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
33.3
LaMelo BallPG
17.2
Jaden McDanielsPF
16.4
Ayo DosunmuSG
16.3
Jonathan KumingaSF
12.7
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zion WilliamsonPF
21.5
Dejounte MurrayPG
18.2
Trey Murphy IIISF
14.9
Jeremiah FearsPG
13.6
Yves MissiC
9.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIN
118.40
5th / 30
Points
NO
120.22
3rd / 30
MIN
49.20
1st / 30
Rebounds
NO
44.44
14th / 30
MIN
26.40
15th / 30
Assists
NO
25.33
T-22nd / 30
MIN
100.19
11th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
NO
104.61
1st / 30
MIN
55.19%
6th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
NO
53.53%
15th / 30
MIN
12.28%
7th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
NO
13.80%
21st / 30
MIN
32.12%
2nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
NO
25.13%
21st / 30
MIN
.274
22nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
NO
.355
4th / 30
MIN
118.18
8th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
114.93
14th / 30
MIN
107.50
3rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
113.55
15th / 30
MIN
+10.68
2nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
NO
+1.38
16th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.19%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.36%4th/30
14.778th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.7130th/30
39.6312th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.6630th/30
37.28%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.67%25th/30
28.759th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.081st/30
52.609th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.683rd/30
54.65%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.62%9th/30
16.3728th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.642nd/30
25.2517th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.954th/30
64.82%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.27%5th/30
14.973rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.5224th/30
34.147th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.9718th/30
8.7813th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.262nd/30
5.2910th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4625th/30
14.479th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6120th/30
22.2612th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5213th/30
Opponent
43.57%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.20%20th/30
11.484th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.686th/30
35.637th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.3915th/30
32.21%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
31.25%3rd/30
27.0513th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.6820th/30
52.8023rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.128th/30
51.23%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
59.60%30th/30
18.9616th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.1422nd/30
24.6512th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.3021st/30
76.92%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.43%16th/30
12.2816th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2610th/30
31.6412th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.338th/30
7.696th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.758th/30
6.4928th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1016th/30
15.7713th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.9311th/30
22.9614th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.0516th/30
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