UTAH100
FINAL
112DAL
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Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
1-7
100
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
4-4
112
Market line: Dallas Mavericks -6.5, total 225.5 · Model expected score: Utah Jazz 109.6 – Dallas Mavericks 116.1

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Lauri MarkkanenDay-To-Day
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Mavericks 69%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Mavericks won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
212

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
31%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
20%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (225.5). The real combined score was 212.

O/U LINE 210
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 220
62% over38% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
9% over91% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
3% over97% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Keyonte GeorgePG
22.0
Lauri MarkkanenPF
17.1
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
16.3
Darryn PetersonSG
12.6
Ace BaileySF
12.5
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
24.3
Kyrie IrvingPG
22.7
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.5
Daniel GaffordC
9.1
Zaccharie RisacherSF
7.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
UTAH
106.89
27th / 30
Points
DAL
112.11
16th / 30
UTAH
46.00
9th / 30
Rebounds
DAL
44.67
T-11th / 30
UTAH
24.67
25th / 30
Assists
DAL
25.89
T-18th / 30
UTAH
101.31
6th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DAL
98.09
21st / 30
UTAH
49.87%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DAL
53.13%
19th / 30
UTAH
14.93%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DAL
13.08%
13th / 30
UTAH
26.05%
19th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DAL
29.52%
10th / 30
UTAH
.291
16th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DAL
.256
25th / 30
UTAH
105.51
29th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
114.29
17th / 30
UTAH
116.70
23rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
113.05
12th / 30
UTAH
-11.19
26th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DAL
+1.25
17th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
43.02%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.38%12th/30
11.8524th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.2319th/30
36.6320th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.9319th/30
32.34%27th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.13%22nd/30
25.3421st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.797th/30
49.7916th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.697th/30
50.88%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.49%10th/30
19.3017th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.0124th/30
25.1219th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.2223rd/30
76.86%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.56%14th/30
12.2815th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.1411th/30
33.129th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.4016th/30
6.6928th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.0611th/30
6.583rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.125th/30
17.1127th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.1814th/30
23.4722nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5414th/30
Opponent
45.04%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.25%14th/30
12.067th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.555th/30
34.003rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.3814th/30
35.48%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.91%1st/30
27.3114th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.0227th/30
53.4125th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.4928th/30
51.13%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.09%18th/30
25.8830th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.359th/30
30.8229th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.6914th/30
83.99%29th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
74.31%6th/30
11.199th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.3928th/30
34.8828th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.389th/30
9.8726th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6116th/30
5.5923rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.4421st/30
13.3827th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.0717th/30
24.1323rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.055th/30
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