PHI95
FINAL
119CLE
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Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
8-1
95
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
4-4
119
Market line: Philadelphia 76ers -2.5, total 231.5 · Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 117.0 – Cleveland Cavaliers 114.5

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Cavaliers won by 24
COMBINED SCORE
214

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
57%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21
7%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (231.5). The real combined score was 214.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over26% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
53% over47% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.0
Jaylen BrownSF
21.8
Joel EmbiidC
19.6
LeBron JamesPF
15.7
VJ EdgecombeSG
12.5
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
22.5
Evan MobleyPF
18.8
James HardenPG
16.6
Jarrett AllenC
13.3
Peyton WatsonSF
10.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
PHI
109.40
24th / 30
Points
CLE
119.22
4th / 30
PHI
42.30
21st / 30
Rebounds
CLE
48.44
3rd / 30
PHI
25.50
21st / 30
Assists
CLE
27.44
8th / 30
PHI
99.38
14th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CLE
101.80
4th / 30
PHI
50.80%
27th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CLE
54.71%
8th / 30
PHI
11.25%
3rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CLE
11.79%
5th / 30
PHI
20.88%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CLE
25.80%
20th / 30
PHI
.297
13th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CLE
.288
18th / 30
PHI
110.09
22nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
117.11
10th / 30
PHI
107.27
2nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
112.64
11th / 30
PHI
+2.82
15th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CLE
+4.48
13th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.37%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.27%13th/30
11.3726th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.066th/30
34.1126th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.719th/30
33.33%T-20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.00%10th/30
27.8714th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.2019th/30
54.346th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.4621st/30
51.30%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.05%14th/30
20.2314th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.5415th/30
26.2613th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.6515th/30
77.01%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.17%20th/30
9.5629th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4618th/30
33.0111th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
36.131st/30
8.8612th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.5324th/30
4.6320th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.469th/30
12.683rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.434th/30
22.149th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.508th/30
Opponent
43.71%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.06%9th/30
11.473rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9916th/30
35.728th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.2018th/30
32.11%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.00%13th/30
26.6712th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.5016th/30
51.5216th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.7026th/30
51.76%9th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.22%6th/30
19.5219th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.6611th/30
26.3620th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.017th/30
74.05%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.73%18th/30
12.3818th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.2215th/30
36.2330th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.9618th/30
6.742nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.993rd/30
5.6424th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.823rd/30
15.9012th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.7729th/30
21.138th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.637th/30
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