BOS119
FINAL
80CHA
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Boston Celtics vs Charlotte Hornets — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
6-2
119
VS
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
3-6
80
Market line: Boston Celtics -9.5, total 207.5 · Model expected score: Boston Celtics 108.5 – Charlotte Hornets 99.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 76%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Celtics won by 39
COMBINED SCORE
199

Margin of Victory — Charlotte Hornets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
76%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
7%
Won by 8-14
7%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (207.5). The real combined score was 199.

O/U LINE 210 MARKET LINE
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
4% over96% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
1% over99% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
0% over100% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jayson TatumSF
27.0
Paul GeorgePF
21.3
Derrick WhitePG
12.8
Neemias QuetaC
9.8
Mitchell RobinsonC
5.7
CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
22.0
Naz ReidC
16.9
Dennis SchröderPG
10.2
Moussa DiabatéC
8.9
Coby WhitePG
5.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BOS
114.78
14th / 30
Points
CHA
96.30
30th / 30
BOS
44.67
T-11th / 30
Rebounds
CHA
45.80
10th / 30
BOS
27.22
10th / 30
Assists
CHA
20.80
30th / 30
BOS
96.23
28th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CHA
94.51
30th / 30
BOS
53.95%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CHA
46.65%
30th / 30
BOS
13.02%
11th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CHA
16.02%
28th / 30
BOS
30.56%
8th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CHA
31.83%
4th / 30
BOS
.304
11th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CHA
.217
29th / 30
BOS
119.28
5th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
101.90
30th / 30
BOS
109.23
4th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CHA
116.60
22nd / 30
BOS
+10.05
3rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CHA
-14.71
29th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.15%23rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
39.26%30th/30
15.933rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.5415th/30
42.385th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.091st/30
37.60%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
28.76%29th/30
24.9423rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
22.4329th/30
48.1522nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
44.5528th/30
51.80%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.36%28th/30
21.5910th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.4027th/30
27.489th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.8929th/30
78.57%12th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.45%4th/30
13.976th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.661st/30
32.4515th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8012th/30
8.4315th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.4125th/30
4.6221st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0812th/30
15.3616th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
19.1529th/30
23.5523rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.2210th/30
Opponent
42.14%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.21%21st/30
15.3628th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.3427th/30
45.6130th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.5616th/30
33.67%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.85%30th/30
22.401st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.827th/30
43.992nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.6311th/30
50.92%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.03%10th/30
18.3610th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.9414th/30
24.7115th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.449th/30
74.30%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.49%17th/30
14.3226th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.951st/30
31.7513th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5423rd/30
7.747th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.9528th/30
4.5010th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7611th/30
16.867th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.7118th/30
25.2929th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.6019th/30
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