WSH132
FINAL
139ATL
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Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
4-4
132
VS
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
5-4
139
Market line: Atlanta Hawks -8.5, total 229.5 · Model expected score: Washington Wizards 110.6 – Atlanta Hawks 119.0

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut
ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hawks 74%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hawks won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
271

Margin of Victory — Atlanta Hawks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
26%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
18%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines, centered on the real market total (229.5). The real combined score was 271.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 230 MARKET LINE
49% over ✓51% under
O/U LINE 240
28% over ✓72% under
O/U LINE 250
13% over ✓87% under
O/U LINE 260
5% over ✓95% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony DavisPF
23.4
Trae YoungPG
19.6
Kyshawn GeorgeSG
17.3
AJ DybantsaSF
16.5
Alex SarrC
9.6
ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
21.7
Jalen JohnsonPF
18.3
CJ McCollumPG
14.3
Onyeka OkongwuC
12.2
Dyson DanielsSF
9.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
WSH
111.44
19th / 30
Points
ATL
118.10
7th / 30
WSH
41.00
26th / 30
Rebounds
ATL
44.50
13th / 30
WSH
25.11
24th / 30
Assists
ATL
31.70
1st / 30
WSH
98.02
22nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ATL
101.59
5th / 30
WSH
53.78%
12th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ATL
53.43%
18th / 30
WSH
12.65%
10th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ATL
12.28%
6th / 30
WSH
21.72%
29th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ATL
29.50%
11th / 30
WSH
.311
8th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ATL
.205
30th / 30
WSH
113.70
19th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
116.25
12th / 30
WSH
114.60
18th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
113.10
13th / 30
WSH
-0.91
19th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ATL
+3.15
14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.94%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.38%20th/30
9.9829th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.265th/30
30.8329th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.624th/30
32.35%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.80%14th/30
30.953rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.7615th/30
54.525th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.1712th/30
56.76%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.21%18th/30
21.889th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.9630th/30
26.5312th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.3930th/30
82.48%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.16%16th/30
9.1830th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.888th/30
32.6514th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.9225th/30
8.0520th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.656th/30
5.678th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.1529th/30
14.066th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.478th/30
20.295th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.2511th/30
Opponent
43.85%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.26%25th/30
13.3817th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.731st/30
42.6228th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.981st/30
31.38%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
32.54%9th/30
29.0223rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.1228th/30
54.0727th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.6819th/30
53.67%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
58.29%28th/30
16.443rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.6720th/30
19.161st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.6919th/30
85.80%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.46%26th/30
15.1930th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.937th/30
33.1021st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.1722nd/30
9.0719th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9617th/30
2.611st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.0026th/30
14.4020th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.936th/30
22.6713th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.701st/30
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