DEN127
FINAL
120PHX
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Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
2-2
127
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
1-2
120
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 115.2 – Phoenix Suns 115.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Suns 51%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nuggets won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
247

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
48%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 247.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 240
32% over ✓68% under
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
22.3
Jamal MurrayPG
22.3
Aaron GordonPF
11.3
Christian BraunSG
10.3
Bryce HopkinsSF
5.0
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
23.0
Dillon BrooksSF
14.7
Jalen GreenSG
14.0
Miles BridgesSF
13.7
Khaman MaluachC
7.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
114.00
16th / 30
Points
PHX
112.00
20th / 30
DEN
43.60
T-19th / 30
Rebounds
PHX
40.25
28th / 30
DEN
26.80
T-12th / 30
Assists
PHX
27.50
10th / 30
DEN
98.95
19th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHX
97.69
26th / 30
DEN
54.71%
7th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHX
54.37%
10th / 30
DEN
14.04%
18th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHX
12.73%
12th / 30
DEN
27.52%
16th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHX
28.33%
12th / 30
DEN
.313
10th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHX
.228
26th / 30
DEN
115.21
12th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
114.65
15th / 30
DEN
116.42
20th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
127.44
30th / 30
DEN
-1.21
18th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHX
-12.80
28th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.06%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.48%13th/30
13.1418th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.337th/30
35.1721st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
41.203rd/30
37.36%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.78%17th/30
27.2917th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.8913th/30
50.7317th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.6519th/30
53.78%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.19%9th/30
21.229th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.8726th/30
26.8812th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.7328th/30
78.95%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.54%18th/30
12.1316th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.0510th/30
31.9316th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.1530th/30
10.316th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.2112th/30
4.4523rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3710th/30
15.9718th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.5911th/30
20.213rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.7510th/30
Opponent
46.59%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.00%27th/30
13.9523rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
17.4030th/30
39.8223rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.6722nd/30
35.03%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
43.87%30th/30
28.9021st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.6112th/30
52.1522nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.1612th/30
55.43%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.06%15th/30
16.787th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.0125th/30
19.812nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.8926th/30
84.69%29th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.90%21st/30
13.3421st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.1029th/30
31.9314th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0120th/30
10.1126th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9616th/30
4.8512th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.847th/30
16.3711th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.155th/30
23.8520th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.681st/30
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