LAL95
FINAL
112GS
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors — Win Probability

FINAL
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1
95
VS
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
2-3
112
Model expected score: Los Angeles Lakers 116.7 – Golden State Warriors 115.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day
GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Warriors won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
207

Margin of Victory — Golden State Warriors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
53%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
8%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 207.

O/U LINE 210
88% over12% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
74% over26% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
35% over65% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
34.3
Austin ReavesSG
26.7
Walker KesslerC
16.7
Ziaire WilliamsSF
11.3
Matisse ThybulleSG
9.0
GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
23.7
Yaxel LendeborgSF
21.8
Brandin PodziemskiSG
18.0
Brandon WilliamsPG
11.0
De'Anthony MeltonPG
9.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAL
118.50
7th / 30
Points
GS
116.67
T-12th / 30
LAL
39.17
30th / 30
Rebounds
GS
43.83
16th / 30
LAL
23.00
28th / 30
Assists
GS
26.50
16th / 30
LAL
98.40
23rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
GS
98.11
25th / 30
LAL
59.21%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
GS
53.50%
16th / 30
LAL
15.51%
28th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
GS
14.15%
22nd / 30
LAL
27.19%
18th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
GS
33.94%
1st / 30
LAL
.366
2nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
GS
.308
13th / 30
LAL
120.43
3rd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
118.92
6th / 30
LAL
115.18
19th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
GS
117.56
22nd / 30
LAL
+5.25
9th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
GS
+1.36
14th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
50.72%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.61%24th/30
13.8910th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.971st/30
37.2618th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.946th/30
37.27%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.00%4th/30
27.6116th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.1226th/30
44.5529th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.9322nd/30
61.98%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
49.31%27th/30
23.544th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.765th/30
29.982nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.698th/30
78.53%11th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
82.21%5th/30
10.5026th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.802nd/30
29.3027th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.8829th/30
10.505th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.027th/30
6.784th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.0826th/30
17.4527th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.8226th/30
24.0523rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.2720th/30
Opponent
45.99%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.31%28th/30
14.2324th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9116th/30
37.4318th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.8613th/30
38.01%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.02%16th/30
25.585th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.7325th/30
49.125th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.6110th/30
52.07%8th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
59.93%28th/30
21.3423rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3714th/30
27.7825th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.6312th/30
76.83%16th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.62%19th/30
13.5524th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.8912th/30
28.122nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.756th/30
10.6729th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.8524th/30
3.394th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.1227th/30
18.632nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.673rd/30
23.8821st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.4626th/30
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