LAC101
FINAL
127MIN
← back to predictions

LA Clippers vs Minnesota Timberwolves — Win Probability

FINAL
LA Clippers logo
LA Clippers
1-3
101
VS
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
3-2
127
Model expected score: LA Clippers 113.3 – Minnesota Timberwolves 117.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

LAC
  • Yanic Konan NiederhauserOut
  • Brandon IngramOut
  • Cam ChristieDay-To-Day
  • Bradley BealOut
  • Jordan MillerOut
MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Timberwolves 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Timberwolves won by 26
COMBINED SCORE
228

Margin of Victory — Minnesota Timberwolves (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
37%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 228.

O/U LINE 210
87% over ✓13% under
O/U LINE 220
72% over ✓28% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
32% over68% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
16% over84% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

LAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Darius GarlandPG
24.0
Derrick Jones Jr.SF
11.7
Rui HachimuraPF
10.3
Kris DunnPG
9.7
Isaiah JacksonC
9.7
MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
33.3
Jaden McDanielsPF
15.0
LaMelo BallPG
14.8
Jonathan KumingaPF
11.5
Rudy GobertC
8.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
LAC
105.40
29th / 30
Points
MIN
121.50
2nd / 30
LAC
41.00
27th / 30
Rebounds
MIN
50.17
2nd / 30
LAC
24.80
22nd / 30
Assists
MIN
27.83
T-7th / 30
LAC
99.26
18th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIN
102.58
8th / 30
LAC
53.21%
17th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIN
56.96%
3rd / 30
LAC
19.23%
30th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIN
12.85%
13th / 30
LAC
25.73%
21st / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIN
30.32%
7th / 30
LAC
.296
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIN
.259
20th / 30
LAC
106.19
28th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIN
118.44
7th / 30
LAC
112.63
14th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIN
103.98
1st / 30
LAC
-6.45
22nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIN
+14.46
1st / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.94%22nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.39%6th/30
13.5014th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.603rd/30
34.4523rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.819th/30
39.18%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.18%2nd/30
23.1729th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.4312th/30
47.1524th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.1814th/30
49.15%28th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.56%10th/30
19.3416th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.7928th/30
24.1819th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.5620th/30
80.00%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
62.76%30th/30
10.6825th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.657th/30
30.6322nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.262nd/30
11.483rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6117th/30
5.0413th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5522nd/30
21.9630th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.9513th/30
20.957th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.5815th/30
Opponent
48.61%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.42%7th/30
11.485th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.893rd/30
31.631st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.748th/30
36.31%20th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
30.45%5th/30
30.8328th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.6513th/30
55.4127th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.6917th/30
55.64%23rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.56%10th/30
16.524th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.0311th/30
22.977th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.0511th/30
71.93%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.00%11th/30
12.6918th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.247th/30
30.837th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.368th/30
12.0930th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6114th/30
5.0416th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.8525th/30
16.937th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.6016th/30
20.556th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.9116th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service