HOU111
FINAL
116DAL
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Houston Rockets vs Dallas Mavericks — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
5-0
111
VS
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
3-2
116
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 117.9 – Dallas Mavericks 112.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Rockets 65%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Mavericks won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
227

Margin of Victory — Dallas Mavericks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
65%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 227.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Alperen ŞengünC
24.5
Kevin DurantPF
23.5
Amen ThompsonSF
17.0
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
16.8
Reed SheppardPG
11.7
DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
25.0
Kyrie IrvingSG
19.0
P.J. WashingtonPF
15.5
Naji MarshallSF
13.7
Max ChristieSG
9.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
HOU
121.00
3rd / 30
Points
DAL
114.33
15th / 30
HOU
45.33
12th / 30
Rebounds
DAL
43.67
T-17th / 30
HOU
27.83
T-7th / 30
Assists
DAL
27.00
11th / 30
HOU
98.67
22nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DAL
98.78
21st / 30
HOU
56.78%
5th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DAL
56.93%
4th / 30
HOU
13.35%
16th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DAL
14.14%
21st / 30
HOU
32.77%
2nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DAL
27.92%
14th / 30
HOU
.329
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DAL
.214
29th / 30
HOU
122.63
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
115.74
11th / 30
HOU
111.48
11th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DAL
113.21
15th / 30
HOU
+11.15
3rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DAL
+2.53
13th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.81%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.53%3rd/30
12.1622nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1617th/30
32.0928th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.7916th/30
37.89%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.82%16th/30
31.253rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.885th/30
55.075th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.1215th/30
56.75%8th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
60.40%3rd/30
23.653rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.5129th/30
28.724th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.0729th/30
82.35%4th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.11%20th/30
13.0111th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3020th/30
32.9414th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.9015th/30
10.644th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9415th/30
5.578th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.922nd/30
15.3716th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.0320th/30
20.786th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.2821st/30
Opponent
45.79%12th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.47%11th/30
11.999th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.631st/30
40.0324th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
35.779th/30
29.96%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.72%2nd/30
29.3924th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.7230th/30
50.3414th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.3729th/30
58.39%25th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.29%21st/30
16.726th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.889th/30
23.319th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.3115th/30
71.74%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
70.67%1st/30
12.5017th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.6828th/30
26.691st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.193rd/30
9.6322nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.1120th/30
3.383rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5611th/30
16.0512th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.3421st/30
23.6519th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.732nd/30
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