IND125
FINAL
145MIA
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Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
2-3
125
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
1-4
145
Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 116.0 – Miami Heat 124.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 73%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Heat won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
270

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
27%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
16%
Won by 21+
18%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 270.

O/U LINE 210
94% over ✓6% under
O/U LINE 220
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 230
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
51% over ✓49% under
O/U LINE 250
31% over ✓69% under
O/U LINE 260
15% over ✓85% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
23.5
Tyrese HaliburtonPG
21.8
Andrew NembhardSG
16.0
Aaron NesmithSF
11.7
Ivica ZubacC
9.0
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
28.5
Davion MitchellPG
18.0
Bam AdebayoC
11.8
Klay ThompsonSF
9.0
Andrew WigginsSF
8.8

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
IND
116.67
T-12th / 30
Points
MIA
118.33
8th / 30
IND
42.83
23rd / 30
Rebounds
MIA
43.67
T-17th / 30
IND
29.17
2nd / 30
Assists
MIA
28.83
3rd / 30
IND
101.48
10th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
102.86
5th / 30
IND
54.38%
9th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
54.55%
8th / 30
IND
12.54%
10th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
12.38%
8th / 30
IND
23.93%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
24.72%
24th / 30
IND
.296
15th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.273
19th / 30
IND
114.97
14th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
115.04
13th / 30
IND
118.09
23rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
118.12
24th / 30
IND
-3.12
21st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
-3.08
20th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.30%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.45%7th/30
12.4821st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.6420th/30
37.1219th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.1020th/30
33.63%22nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.06%19th/30
29.2410th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.659th/30
51.0816th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.0113th/30
57.23%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.01%7th/30
19.0518th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.8221st/30
26.1115th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.3018th/30
72.96%26th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
73.33%25th/30
11.0022nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.8624th/30
31.2119th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.6017th/30
7.0627th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1019th/30
4.1125th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8615th/30
14.299th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.108th/30
21.689th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.254th/30
Opponent
46.84%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.48%23rd/30
13.3019th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
16.5329th/30
36.6311th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.8327th/30
36.32%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.48%29th/30
28.0916th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.259th/30
51.7419th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.266th/30
54.29%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.29%16th/30
22.0126th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.043rd/30
27.1021st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.903rd/30
81.21%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.74%15th/30
12.4816th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.1514th/30
34.9829th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.0522nd/30
9.0318th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1010th/30
5.4219th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8613th/30
14.1222nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.0719th/30
24.3124th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.6813th/30
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