HOU114
FINAL
110SA
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Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
Houston Rockets logo
Houston Rockets
1-0
114
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
0-1
110
Model expected score: Houston Rockets 113.0 – San Antonio Spurs 117.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

HOU
  • Oscar TshiebweDay-To-Day
  • Clint CapelaOut
  • Steven AdamsOut
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Rockets won by 4
COMBINED SCORE
224

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
39%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 224.

O/U LINE 210
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

HOU
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Kevin DurantPF
24.0
Alperen ŞengünC
23.0
Amen ThompsonSF
17.7
Jabari Smith Jr.PF
17.0
Reed SheppardPG
11.0
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Dylan HarperSG
20.0
Victor WembanyamaC
20.0
Stephon CastlePG
19.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
17.3
Devin VassellSG
9.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
HOU
121.00
7th / 30
Points
SA
107.00
22nd / 30
HOU
43.00
T-14th / 30
Rebounds
SA
42.50
T-16th / 30
HOU
28.00
T-6th / 30
Assists
SA
21.00
26th / 30
HOU
98.75
24th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
100.83
18th / 30
HOU
59.04%
3rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
48.33%
24th / 30
HOU
13.60%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
12.17%
8th / 30
HOU
30.86%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
20.65%
28th / 30
HOU
.337
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.278
22nd / 30
HOU
122.53
5th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
106.12
19th / 30
HOU
111.39
15th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
114.05
17th / 30
HOU
+11.14
9th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
-7.93
20th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
51.20%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
42.22%23rd/30
13.1610th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.9119th/30
30.8924th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.7015th/30
42.62%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.73%17th/30
29.877th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.7816th/30
53.1712th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.5613th/30
56.19%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.94%24th/30
23.296th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.8413th/30
28.359th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.7922nd/30
82.14%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.00%11th/30
12.6613th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.4224th/30
30.8916th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.7310th/30
11.147th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.9319th/30
3.5424th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.945th/30
15.1912th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.887th/30
21.275th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.7920th/30
Opponent
48.50%22nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.82%18th/30
11.6514th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.9017th/30
37.9820th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.772nd/30
30.67%11th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
42.86%29th/30
29.3721st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.2717th/30
46.588th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
58.0228th/30
63.04%27th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
48.72%6th/30
17.7211th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.8220th/30
25.8215th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.2913th/30
68.63%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
86.27%27th/30
8.614th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.935th/30
28.354th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
36.2028th/30
11.1424th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.4219th/30
3.545th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
7.4427th/30
18.238th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.8926th/30
24.8122nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.828th/30
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