DEN84
FINAL
96OKC
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Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
0-0
84
VS
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
1-0
96
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 115.9 – Oklahoma City Thunder 121.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 64%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
180

Margin of Victory — Oklahoma City Thunder (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
36%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
13%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 180.

O/U LINE 210
92% over8% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
81% over19% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
64% over36% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
24.0
Jamal MurrayPG
24.0
Aaron GordonPF
13.5
Christian BraunSG
11.0
Cameron JohnsonPF
5.0
OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
24.5
Jalen WilliamsSG
16.5
Chet HolmgrenC
13.0
Cason WallaceSG
7.5
Isaiah HartensteinC
5.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
84.00
29th / 30
Points
OKC
106.00
T-19th / 30
DEN
53.00
T-4th / 30
Rebounds
OKC
46.50
11th / 30
DEN
17.00
28th / 30
Assists
OKC
23.00
T-18th / 30
DEN
92.02
30th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
OKC
97.00
27th / 30
DEN
42.68%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
OKC
48.16%
23rd / 30
DEN
19.35%
28th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
OKC
10.09%
3rd / 30
DEN
38.78%
2nd / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
OKC
27.37%
16th / 30
DEN
.268
25th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
OKC
.179
29th / 30
DEN
91.29
28th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
109.28
18th / 30
DEN
104.33
10th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
OKC
96.91
4th / 30
DEN
-13.04
23rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
OKC
+12.37
8th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
37.80%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
41.58%24th/30
8.6921st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.899th/30
32.6018th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.158th/30
26.67%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.78%13th/30
24.9922nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.8413th/30
56.519th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
59.802nd/30
44.23%29th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
46.55%26th/30
15.2128th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.9529th/30
23.9125th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
17.5329th/30
63.64%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
85.29%6th/30
20.651st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.4014th/30
36.955th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.548th/30
7.6123rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.3112th/30
2.1724th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
9.793rd/30
23.9129th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.863rd/30
24.9919th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.689th/30
Opponent
37.89%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
38.29%4th/30
11.9518th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.2811th/30
46.7327th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.5417th/30
25.58%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
26.87%8th/30
27.1716th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.268th/30
56.5122nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
55.6719th/30
48.08%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
45.37%2nd/30
14.132nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.5611th/30
15.212nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.238th/30
92.86%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.60%13th/30
17.3929th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.9523rd/30
32.6016th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.5723rd/30
13.0427th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.703rd/30
9.7829th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.7023rd/30
13.0424th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.047th/30
23.9117th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.2318th/30
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