CLE106
FINAL
114PHI
← back to predictions

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
0-0
106
VS
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
1-0
114
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 115.5 – Philadelphia 76ers 116.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
76ers 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ 76ers won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
220

Margin of Victory — Philadelphia 76ers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
47%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 220.

O/U LINE 210
88% over ✓12% under
O/U LINE 220
74% over26% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
54% over46% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
17% over83% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
7% over93% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.0
Evan MobleyPF
19.0
Jarrett AllenC
17.5
James HardenPG
14.0
Peyton WatsonSF
9.5
PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.7
Jaylen BrownSF
22.3
Joel EmbiidC
21.7
LeBron JamesSF
15.5
VJ EdgecombeSG
12.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
106.00
T-19th / 30
Points
PHI
110.00
T-16th / 30
CLE
46.00
12th / 30
Rebounds
PHI
44.50
14th / 30
CLE
18.00
27th / 30
Assists
PHI
26.00
T-14th / 30
CLE
108.54
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHI
105.39
6th / 30
CLE
48.85%
20th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHI
48.62%
21st / 30
CLE
17.45%
26th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHI
11.20%
6th / 30
CLE
22.22%
25th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHI
16.67%
28th / 30
CLE
.322
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHI
.315
16th / 30
CLE
97.66
26th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
104.37
20th / 30
CLE
105.03
11th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHI
97.73
5th / 30
CLE
-7.37
19th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHI
+6.64
12th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
44.83%19th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
43.65%21st/30
6.4527th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.5423rd/30
26.7230th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.2620th/30
24.14%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
26.47%24th/30
29.4810th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.9411th/30
53.4315th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.6114th/30
55.17%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.98%14th/30
19.3515th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.8713th/30
25.8019th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.0416th/30
75.00%19th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.19%14th/30
9.2124th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
7.1228th/30
33.1714th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.117th/30
9.2115th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5420th/30
6.457th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.6910th/30
19.3525th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.334th/30
21.195th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.827th/30
Opponent
45.65%17th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
40.88%5th/30
6.454th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.548th/30
25.801st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
29.418th/30
25.00%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
29.03%12th/30
32.2527th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.5713th/30
58.9628th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.4620th/30
54.69%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
47.06%5th/30
21.1919th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.9813th/30
27.6417th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.0912th/30
76.67%14th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
72.73%9th/30
8.296th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3914th/30
32.2514th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.5824th/30
9.2116th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.597th/30
1.843rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
7.1226th/30
14.7420th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.6014th/30
21.195th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.356th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service