GS105
FINAL
127LAL
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Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Golden State Warriors logo
Golden State Warriors
0-0
105
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
0-0
127
Model expected score: Golden State Warriors 112.6 – Los Angeles Lakers 117.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

GS
  • Gary Payton IIDay-To-Day
  • Brandon WilliamsDay-To-Day
  • Will RichardOut
  • Kristaps PorzingisOut
  • Moses MoodyOut
  • Jimmy Butler IIIOut
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 22
COMBINED SCORE
232

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
37%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 232.

O/U LINE 210
85% over ✓15% under
O/U LINE 220
70% over ✓30% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 240
30% over70% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

GS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Stephen CurryPG
23.5
Yaxel LendeborgSF
18.7
Brandin PodziemskiSG
18.0
Brandon WilliamsPG
12.7
De'Anthony MeltonPG
11.7
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
25.5
Austin ReavesSG
25.5
Walker KesslerC
24.0
Ziaire WilliamsSF
11.5
Matisse ThybulleSG
8.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
GS
105.00
21st / 28
Points
LAL
127.00
6th / 28
GS
36.00
26th / 28
Rebounds
LAL
43.00
T-15th / 28
GS
25.00
T-16th / 28
Assists
LAL
28.00
T-7th / 28
GS
98.73
T-21st / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAL
98.73
T-21st / 28
GS
45.65%
24th / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAL
63.58%
1st / 28
GS
12.62%
12th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAL
16.23%
21st / 28
GS
31.25%
T-8th / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAL
32.26%
7th / 28
GS
.293
19th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAL
.333
10th / 28
GS
106.35
19th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
128.63
3rd / 28
GS
128.63
26th / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
106.35
10th / 28
GS
-22.28
24th / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAL
+22.28
5th / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
41.30%24th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
56.79%1st/28
8.1023rd/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.1415th/28
36.4611th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.3626th/28
22.22%25th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.29%7th/28
30.398th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
35.453rd/28
56.728th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.6812th/28
53.57%13th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
66.04%3rd/28
21.2712th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
24.318th/28
27.35T-14th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.35T-14th/28
77.78%T-13th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
88.89%2nd/28
15.195th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.1319th/28
21.2728th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.4211th/28
15.191st/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
11.147th/28
2.0324th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0613th/28
15.1912th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
18.2323rd/28
19.243rd/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
25.3220th/28
Opponent
56.79%28th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
41.30%5th/28
11.1414th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
8.106th/28
28.363rd/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.4618th/28
39.29%22nd/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
22.22%4th/28
35.4526th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.3921st/28
53.6817th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.7221st/28
66.04%26th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.57%16th/28
24.3121st/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.2717th/28
27.35T-14th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.35T-14th/28
88.89%27th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.78%T-15th/28
10.1310th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
15.1924th/28
33.4218th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
21.271st/28
11.1422nd/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
15.1928th/28
5.0616th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
2.035th/28
18.236th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.1917th/28
25.3220th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.243rd/28
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