MIN131
FINAL
106MIA
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

FINAL
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
0-0
131
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
0-0
106
Model expected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 118.1 – Miami Heat 119.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Timberwolves won by 25
COMBINED SCORE
237

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 237.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
30.0
LaMelo BallPG
16.5
Jaden McDanielsPF
16.0
Jonathan KumingaPF
11.5
Rudy GobertC
9.5
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
28.3
Davion MitchellPG
17.0
Bam AdebayoC
13.0
Klay ThompsonSF
10.0
Andrew WigginsSF
7.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 28 teams
MIN
131.00
3rd / 28
Points
MIA
106.00
T-19th / 28
MIN
52.00
5th / 28
Rebounds
MIA
34.00
27th / 28
MIN
20.00
T-25th / 28
Assists
MIA
27.00
T-13th / 28
MIN
104.13
T-5th / 28
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
104.13
T-5th / 28
MIN
57.65%
6th / 28
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
53.09%
16th / 28
MIN
11.22%
7th / 28
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
16.30%
22nd / 28
MIN
36.17%
4th / 28
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
10.26%
28th / 28
MIN
.296
18th / 28
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.321
14th / 28
MIN
125.80
5th / 28
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
101.79
23rd / 28
MIN
101.79
6th / 28
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
125.80
24th / 28
MIN
+24.01
4th / 28
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
-24.01
25th / 28

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 28 teams.

Team
46.94%12th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.15%9th/28
20.171st/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
7.6825th/28
48.023rd/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.6919th/28
42.00%3rd/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
24.24%24th/28
24.0124th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.779th/28
46.09T-22nd/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.09T-22nd/28
52.08%17th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
64.58%4th/28
17.2923rd/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.2116th/28
27.8511th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.9721st/28
62.07%27th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.92%T-15th/28
16.334th/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
3.8428th/28
33.6110th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
28.8119th/28
10.5610th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.7224th/28
1.9226th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8016th/28
13.448th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.2919th/28
24.9717th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
26.8925th/28
Opponent
48.15%20th/28
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.94%17th/28
7.684th/28
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
20.1728th/28
31.6910th/28
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.0226th/28
24.24%5th/28
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
42.00%26th/28
29.7720th/28
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.015th/28
46.09T-6th/28
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.09T-6th/28
64.58%25th/28
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.08%12th/28
19.2113th/28
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.296th/28
24.978th/28
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.8518th/28
76.92%T-13th/28
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
62.07%2nd/28
3.841st/28
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
16.3325th/28
28.8110th/28
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.6119th/28
6.725th/28
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.5619th/28
4.8013th/28
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
1.923rd/28
17.2910th/28
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.4421st/28
26.8925th/28
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
24.9717th/28
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