OKC116
FINAL
104SA
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
0-0
116
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
0-0
104
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 113.6 – San Antonio Spurs 115.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 54%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Thunder won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
220

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
46%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
8%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 220.

O/U LINE 210
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 220
67% over33% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
28% over72% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
13% over87% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
24.5
Jalen WilliamsSG
16.5
Chet HolmgrenC
13.0
Cason WallaceSG
7.5
Isaiah HartensteinC
5.0
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Dylan HarperSG
20.0
Victor WembanyamaC
20.0
Stephon CastlePG
19.3
De'Aaron FoxPG
17.3
Devin VassellSG
9.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 6 teams
OKC
116.00
2nd / 6
Points
SA
104.00
5th / 6
OKC
47.00
3rd / 6
Rebounds
SA
45.00
T-4th / 6
OKC
24.00
4th / 6
Assists
SA
21.00
T-5th / 6
OKC
102.33
T-1st / 6
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
102.33
T-1st / 6
OKC
52.63%
3rd / 6
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
44.09%
5th / 6
OKC
9.58%
2nd / 6
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
11.11%
3rd / 6
OKC
22.22%
4th / 6
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
21.28%
5th / 6
OKC
.211
6th / 6
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.269
4th / 6
OKC
113.36
3rd / 6
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
101.63
5th / 6
OKC
101.63
2nd / 6
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
113.36
4th / 6
OKC
+11.73
1st / 6
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
-11.73
6th / 6

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 6 teams.

Team
45.26%3rd/6
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
38.71%5th/6
13.683rd/6
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
9.776th/6
30.296th/6
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.164th/6
45.16%1st/6
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
27.03%6th/6
28.341st/6
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.413rd/6
62.541st/6
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.733rd/6
45.31%5th/6
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
46.43%4th/6
15.646th/6
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.502nd/6
19.546th/6
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.434th/6
80.00%3rd/6
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
88.00%1st/6
9.77T-4th/6
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.77T-4th/6
36.163rd/6
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.205th/6
7.823rd/6
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.866th/6
9.773rd/6
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
10.751st/6
10.752nd/6
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.703rd/6
21.501st/6
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.455th/6
Opponent
38.71%2nd/6
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.26%4th/6
9.771st/6
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.684th/6
36.163rd/6
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.291st/6
27.03%1st/6
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
45.16%6th/6
25.414th/6
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.346th/6
54.734th/6
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
62.546th/6
46.43%3rd/6
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
45.31%2nd/6
21.505th/6
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
15.641st/6
24.433rd/6
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
19.541st/6
88.00%6th/6
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.00%4th/6
9.77T-2nd/6
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.77T-2nd/6
34.202nd/6
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
36.164th/6
5.861st/6
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.824th/6
10.756th/6
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
9.774th/6
12.704th/6
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
10.755th/6
23.455th/6
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.501st/6
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