PHI106
FINAL
100NY
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Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks — Win Probability

FINAL
Philadelphia 76ers logo
Philadelphia 76ers
0-0
106
VS
New York Knicks logo
New York Knicks
0-0
100
Model expected score: Philadelphia 76ers 114.7 – New York Knicks 118.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

PHI
  • Adem BonaOut
  • Dominick BarlowOut
  • Ariel HukportiOut
NY
  • Josh HartDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Knicks 62%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ 76ers won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
206

Margin of Victory — New York Knicks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
38%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 206.

O/U LINE 210
89% over11% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
37% over63% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

PHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Tyrese MaxeyPG
28.7
Jaylen BrownSF
22.3
Joel EmbiidC
21.7
LeBron JamesSF
15.5
VJ EdgecombeSG
12.3
NY
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Karl-Anthony TownsC
20.5
Jalen BrunsonPG
20.0
OG AnunobyPF
15.0
Josh HartSG
12.0
Mikal BridgesSF
2.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 6 teams
PHI
106.00
4th / 6
Points
NY
100.00
6th / 6
PHI
45.00
T-4th / 6
Rebounds
NY
53.00
1st / 6
PHI
28.00
T-1st / 6
Assists
NY
21.00
T-5th / 6
PHI
102.25
T-3rd / 6
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
NY
102.25
T-3rd / 6
PHI
47.75%
4th / 6
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
NY
43.09%
6th / 6
PHI
9.02%
1st / 6
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
NY
11.68%
4th / 6
PHI
13.33%
6th / 6
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
NY
26.42%
2nd / 6
PHI
.303
2nd / 6
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
NY
.287
3rd / 6
PHI
103.66
4th / 6
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NY
97.80
6th / 6
PHI
97.80
1st / 6
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NY
103.66
3rd / 6
PHI
+5.87
3rd / 6
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
NY
-5.87
4th / 6

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 6 teams.

Team
41.57%4th/6
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
37.23%6th/6
10.76T-4th/6
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.76T-4th/6
39.123rd/6
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.275th/6
27.50%5th/6
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.33%4th/6
25.432nd/6
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.476th/6
47.924th/6
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
59.662nd/6
53.06%1st/6
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.34%6th/6
20.543rd/6
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.584th/6
26.41T-2nd/6
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.41T-2nd/6
77.78%4th/6
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
70.37%6th/6
5.876th/6
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.692nd/6
38.14T-1st/6
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
38.14T-1st/6
7.822nd/6
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
5.875th/6
9.782nd/6
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
7.824th/6
9.781st/6
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.694th/6
22.494th/6
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.522nd/6
Opponent
37.23%1st/6
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
41.57%3rd/6
10.76T-2nd/6
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.76T-2nd/6
32.272nd/6
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.124th/6
33.33%3rd/6
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
27.50%2nd/6
23.471st/6
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.435th/6
59.665th/6
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.923rd/6
39.34%1st/6
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.06%6th/6
18.583rd/6
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.544th/6
26.41T-4th/6
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.41T-4th/6
70.37%1st/6
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.78%3rd/6
13.695th/6
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
5.871st/6
38.14T-5th/6
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
38.14T-5th/6
5.872nd/6
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.825th/6
7.823rd/6
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
9.785th/6
13.693rd/6
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
9.786th/6
21.522nd/6
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.494th/6
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