BOS113
FINAL
121DET
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Boston Celtics vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
0-0
113
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
0-0
121
Model expected score: Boston Celtics 111.5 – Detroit Pistons 114.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pistons won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
234

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
43%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 234.

O/U LINE 210
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 220
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
41% over ✓59% under
O/U LINE 240
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
10% over90% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paul GeorgePF
26.5
Jayson TatumPF
24.5
Derrick WhiteSG
14.5
Mitchell RobinsonC
4.0
Jordan WalshPF
2.5
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
19.0
Duncan RobinsonSF
19.0
John CollinsPF
14.5
Jalen DurenC
13.0
Ausar ThompsonSF
7.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 6 teams
BOS
113.00
3rd / 6
Points
DET
121.00
1st / 6
BOS
39.00
6th / 6
Rebounds
DET
49.00
2nd / 6
BOS
28.00
T-1st / 6
Assists
DET
27.00
3rd / 6
BOS
97.96
T-5th / 6
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DET
97.96
T-5th / 6
BOS
55.11%
1st / 6
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DET
54.07%
2nd / 6
BOS
12.59%
5th / 6
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DET
14.52%
6th / 6
BOS
25.53%
3rd / 6
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DET
34.15%
1st / 6
BOS
.239
5th / 6
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DET
.372
1st / 6
BOS
115.36
2nd / 6
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
123.52
1st / 6
BOS
123.52
6th / 6
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
115.36
5th / 6
BOS
-8.17
5th / 6
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DET
+8.17
2nd / 6

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 6 teams.

Team
45.45%1st/6
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.35%2nd/6
17.351st/6
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.312nd/6
42.881st/6
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.832nd/6
40.48%2nd/6
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.50%3rd/6
23.485th/6
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.504th/6
46.96T-5th/6
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.96T-5th/6
50.00%3rd/6
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.17%2nd/6
16.335th/6
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
28.581st/6
21.445th/6
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.671st/6
76.19%5th/6
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
87.50%2nd/6
12.253rd/6
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
14.291st/6
27.566th/6
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.734th/6
10.211st/6
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.154th/6
5.10T-5th/6
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.10T-5th/6
14.295th/6
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
17.356th/6
26.546th/6
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.463rd/6
Opponent
45.35%5th/6
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.45%6th/6
15.315th/6
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
17.356th/6
40.835th/6
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.886th/6
37.50%4th/6
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.48%5th/6
24.503rd/6
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
23.482nd/6
46.96T-1st/6
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
46.96T-1st/6
52.17%5th/6
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
50.00%4th/6
28.586th/6
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.332nd/6
32.676th/6
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.442nd/6
87.50%5th/6
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.19%2nd/6
14.296th/6
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.254th/6
35.733rd/6
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
27.561st/6
7.153rd/6
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.216th/6
5.10T-1st/6
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.10T-1st/6
17.351st/6
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.292nd/6
22.463rd/6
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
26.546th/6
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