ATL115
FINAL
142DET
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Atlanta Hawks vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
14-11
115
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
18-6
142
Model expected score: Atlanta Hawks 115.5 – Detroit Pistons 121.0 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 70%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pistons won by 27
COMBINED SCORE
257

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
35%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
14%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 257.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 250
24% over ✓76% under
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
22.5
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
20.8
Trae YoungPG
19.3
CJ McCollumPG
18.7
Kristaps PorziņģisC
17.1
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
23.9
Jalen DurenC
19.5
Tobias HarrisPF
13.3
Duncan RobinsonSG
12.2
Ausar ThompsonSF
9.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ATL
117.92
12th / 30
Points
DET
119.64
8th / 30
ATL
41.58
25th / 30
Rebounds
DET
46.48
3rd / 30
ATL
30.69
1st / 30
Assists
DET
26.44
14th / 30
ATL
101.08
8th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DET
100.42
15th / 30
ATL
56.15%
7th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DET
54.89%
12th / 30
ATL
12.58%
16th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DET
12.89%
20th / 30
ATL
23.22%
25th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DET
31.41%
2nd / 30
ATL
.249
26th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DET
.324
3rd / 30
ATL
116.66
13th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
119.14
9th / 30
ATL
116.21
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
112.84
3rd / 30
ATL
+0.46
16th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DET
+6.29
5th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.41%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.59%8th/30
13.7012th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.1928th/30
37.3312th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.4328th/30
36.70%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.61%18th/30
29.1112th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.983rd/30
51.1019th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.444th/30
56.96%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.69%10th/30
17.3525th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.594th/30
22.0326th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.762nd/30
78.76%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
75.07%28th/30
9.9324th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.465th/30
31.2025th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8212th/30
9.516th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.723rd/30
5.1012th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.011st/30
14.1214th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.0222nd/30
20.249th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.8628th/30
Opponent
47.31%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.61%2nd/30
12.718th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.2616th/30
36.3413th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.7615th/30
34.97%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.08%15th/30
29.1118th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.012nd/30
52.0514th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
49.035th/30
55.92%22nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.02%2nd/30
19.8619th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
23.0230th/30
24.6917th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
28.6029th/30
80.43%24th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.50%27th/30
11.8324th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.7922nd/30
32.8417th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.402nd/30
9.0623rd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.0422nd/30
4.4112th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1422nd/30
15.414th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.173rd/30
19.294th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
23.2629th/30
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