BOS101
FINAL
116MIL
← back to predictions

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks — Win Probability

FINAL
Boston Celtics logo
Boston Celtics
15-9
101
VS
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
10-15
116
Model expected score: Boston Celtics 118.7 – Milwaukee Bucks 114.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

BOS
Nothing on the report.
MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Celtics 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Bucks won by 15
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — Milwaukee Bucks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
62%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
11%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
6%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

BOS
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jaylen BrownSF
28.7
Jayson TatumPF
21.8
Payton PritchardPG
17.0
Derrick WhiteSG
16.5
Neemias QuetaC
10.2
MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
BOS
116.60
17th / 30
Points
MIL
115.12
19th / 30
BOS
43.64
18th / 30
Rebounds
MIL
39.46
30th / 30
BOS
24.40
28th / 30
Assists
MIL
27.04
9th / 30
BOS
94.91
30th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIL
98.98
22nd / 30
BOS
55.66%
9th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIL
58.37%
2nd / 30
BOS
10.03%
1st / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIL
12.84%
19th / 30
BOS
29.60%
5th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIL
19.74%
30th / 30
BOS
.206
30th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIL
.241
28th / 30
BOS
122.85
5th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
116.30
16th / 30
BOS
116.74
17th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIL
118.52
21st / 30
BOS
+6.11
5th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIL
-2.21
19th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.98%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.42%4th/30
16.731st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.544th/30
45.811st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.9310th/30
36.52%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
40.98%1st/30
28.5313th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.3623rd/30
50.5320th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.8826th/30
56.46%7th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.96%9th/30
15.5929th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
14.9630th/30
19.8530th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.9129th/30
78.56%18th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
71.56%30th/30
13.704th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
8.2830th/30
32.2816th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.5923rd/30
8.8112th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1219th/30
5.615th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4321st/30
11.721st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.1415th/30
23.6430th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.2325th/30
Opponent
45.07%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.04%16th/30
14.3323rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.6821st/30
38.5223rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.3120th/30
37.20%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.70%12th/30
25.964th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.029th/30
50.879th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.328th/30
51.04%3rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.68%20th/30
21.8327th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.4526th/30
27.1426th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.2027th/30
80.43%25th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.86%14th/30
12.7328th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5817th/30
32.5815th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.6524th/30
5.941st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.4715th/30
4.6816th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.126th/30
14.799th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.9117th/30
20.1410th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.315th/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service