OKC107
FINAL
127DEN
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
63-15
107
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
52-28
127
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 119.7 – Denver Nuggets 116.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nuggets won by 20
COMBINED SCORE
234

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
59%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
12%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
7%
Won by 21+
4%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 234.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
42% over58% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
24% over76% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
31.1
Chet HolmgrenPF
17.1
Jalen WilliamsSG
17.1
Ajay MitchellSG
13.6
Aaron WigginsSG
9.4
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
OKC
119.22
5th / 30
Points
DEN
122.00
1st / 30
OKC
44.22
12th / 30
Rebounds
DEN
43.80
15th / 30
OKC
25.69
19th / 30
Assists
DEN
28.95
T-4th / 30
OKC
99.46
15th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DEN
98.97
19th / 30
OKC
56.18%
4th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DEN
57.71%
1st / 30
OKC
10.79%
2nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DEN
10.97%
3rd / 30
OKC
22.36%
28th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DEN
23.41%
25th / 30
OKC
.263
17th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DEN
.295
4th / 30
OKC
119.87
7th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
123.27
1st / 30
OKC
108.13
1st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
118.13
21st / 30
OKC
+11.74
1st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DEN
+5.14
6th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.43%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.61%2nd/30
13.8712th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.359th/30
38.0513th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.2218th/30
36.44%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.60%1st/30
29.4911th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.569th/30
51.4818th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.2914th/30
57.29%3rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.54%6th/30
19.2912th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.113rd/30
23.5418th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.124th/30
81.96%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.80%5th/30
9.6229th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.7527th/30
34.843rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.504th/30
9.774th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.9430th/30
5.496th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.9929th/30
12.081st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.323rd/30
19.207th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.378th/30
Opponent
43.58%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.84%13th/30
14.3527th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.7720th/30
39.0824th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.4325th/30
36.72%24th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.93%3rd/30
24.301st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.3618th/30
49.634th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.6515th/30
48.97%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.77%20th/30
16.472nd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.0912th/30
22.247th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.4514th/30
74.05%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.13%4th/30
11.9224th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3313th/30
33.4021st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.928th/30
7.664th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.957th/30
4.345th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6812th/30
16.082nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.3630th/30
20.6221st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.7328th/30
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