DAL120
FINAL
139SA
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Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
26-54
120
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
59-19
139
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 110.8 – San Antonio Spurs 123.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 87%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Spurs won by 19
COMBINED SCORE
259

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
18%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
9%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
19%
Won by 21+
29%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 259.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over ✓22% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
60% over ✓40% under
O/U LINE 240
39% over ✓61% under
O/U LINE 250
21% over ✓79% under
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
21.0
Anthony DavisPF
20.4
Naji MarshallSF
15.2
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.2
Max ChristieSG
12.3
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
25.0
De'Aaron FoxPG
18.6
Stephon CastlePG
16.7
Devin VassellSG
13.9
Julian ChampagnieSF
11.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DAL
113.69
24th / 30
Points
SA
119.77
3rd / 30
DAL
44.56
10th / 30
Rebounds
SA
46.99
2nd / 30
DAL
25.15
23rd / 30
Assists
SA
28.10
9th / 30
DAL
101.89
4th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
99.42
16th / 30
DAL
52.55%
28th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
55.83%
8th / 30
DAL
12.12%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
11.14%
4th / 30
DAL
23.06%
27th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
26.30%
10th / 30
DAL
.287
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.274
12th / 30
DAL
111.58
27th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
120.47
4th / 30
DAL
117.31
19th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
112.13
3rd / 30
DAL
-5.73
24th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
+8.34
2nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.52%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.27%6th/30
10.6329th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.6815th/30
31.0929th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.0314th/30
34.18%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.97%13th/30
30.337th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.978th/30
56.956th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.3913th/30
53.26%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.20%4th/30
19.0513th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.508th/30
25.278th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.7811th/30
75.36%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.71%13th/30
10.2623rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.5213th/30
33.4610th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.742nd/30
7.3827th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.5624th/30
5.0612th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.487th/30
13.6813th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.714th/30
17.981st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.904th/30
Opponent
47.75%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.02%4th/30
12.606th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1313th/30
35.847th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.2717th/30
35.16%6th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.22%8th/30
31.3129th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.158th/30
56.1130th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.4125th/30
55.80%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.74%3rd/30
16.893rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.451st/30
21.925th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.831st/30
77.06%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.98%20th/30
11.7221st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.554th/30
34.2427th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2912th/30
8.5916th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.746th/30
5.2021st/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6010th/30
12.4127th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.4028th/30
20.6322nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.4019th/30
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