IND108
FINAL
117CLE
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Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers — Win Probability

FINAL
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
18-59
108
VS
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
48-29
117
Model expected score: Indiana Pacers 113.7 – Cleveland Cavaliers 123.2 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut
CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 81%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
225

Margin of Victory — Cleveland Cavaliers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
25%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
17%
Won by 21+
21%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 225.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over36% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
43% over57% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
11% over89% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
24.0
Bennedict MathurinSF
17.8
Andrew NembhardPG
16.9
Aaron NesmithSF
13.8
Jarace WalkerPF
11.6
CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.9
James HardenPG
20.5
Evan MobleyPF
18.2
Darius GarlandPG
18.0
Jarrett AllenC
15.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
IND
112.53
27th / 30
Points
CLE
119.29
4th / 30
IND
41.74
26th / 30
Rebounds
CLE
44.29
12th / 30
IND
27.51
12th / 30
Assists
CLE
28.29
8th / 30
IND
100.59
8th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
CLE
99.43
16th / 30
IND
53.31%
23rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
CLE
56.00%
6th / 30
IND
12.11%
14th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
CLE
11.62%
9th / 30
IND
21.80%
29th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
CLE
26.69%
9th / 30
IND
.253
21st / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
CLE
.263
17th / 30
IND
111.86
27th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
119.98
6th / 30
IND
120.03
27th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
CLE
115.80
15th / 30
IND
-8.17
26th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
CLE
+4.18
9th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
45.81%26th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.00%7th/30
13.2917th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.497th/30
37.2515th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.316th/30
35.68%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.96%12th/30
27.3123rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.0116th/30
51.3920th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.3324th/30
53.15%28th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.65%2nd/30
17.3623rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.4817th/30
22.3922nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.8316th/30
77.52%20th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.54%18th/30
9.8126th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.769th/30
31.6821st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.7913th/30
7.2529th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5513th/30
4.5120th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0013th/30
13.5712th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.299th/30
20.9822nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.8812th/30
Opponent
49.03%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.30%8th/30
12.082nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.0324th/30
33.812nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.0321st/30
35.73%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.89%25th/30
31.9530th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.345th/30
55.9929th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.319th/30
57.07%26th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.28%7th/30
19.8826th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.0417th/30
25.7426th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.8917th/30
77.23%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.71%27th/30
11.169th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4014th/30
35.2030th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.3011th/30
7.978th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.6517th/30
4.7513th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.366th/30
12.6924th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.3510th/30
19.8710th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.5420th/30
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