SA134
FINAL
136DEN
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San Antonio Spurs vs Denver Nuggets — Win Probability

FINAL
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
57-18
134
VS
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
49-28
136
Model expected score: San Antonio Spurs 119.1 – Denver Nuggets 119.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut
DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Nuggets 51%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Nuggets won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
270

Margin of Victory — Denver Nuggets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
50%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
15%
Won by 15-21
9%
Won by 21+
7%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 270.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 230
67% over ✓33% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
46% over ✓54% under
O/U LINE 250
27% over ✓73% under
O/U LINE 260
13% over ✓87% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
25.0
De'Aaron FoxPG
18.6
Stephon CastlePG
16.7
Devin VassellSG
13.9
Julian ChampagnieSF
11.1
DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
SA
119.68
3rd / 30
Points
DEN
121.56
1st / 30
SA
47.00
2nd / 30
Rebounds
DEN
43.62
16th / 30
SA
28.04
9th / 30
Assists
DEN
28.83
5th / 30
SA
99.53
14th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DEN
98.90
20th / 30
SA
55.77%
7th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DEN
57.54%
1st / 30
SA
11.18%
5th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DEN
10.95%
3rd / 30
SA
26.23%
10th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DEN
23.18%
25th / 30
SA
.275
12th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DEN
.299
4th / 30
SA
120.25
5th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
122.91
1st / 30
SA
112.15
3rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DEN
118.12
21st / 30
SA
+8.10
3rd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DEN
+4.80
8th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.17%6th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.44%2nd/30
13.7412th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.3010th/30
38.2413th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.1318th/30
35.92%15th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
39.58%1st/30
29.778th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.3612th/30
52.0814th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.1713th/30
57.17%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.27%7th/30
19.5010th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.303rd/30
24.8312th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.394th/30
78.53%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.70%5th/30
11.5213th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.6728th/30
35.702nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.435th/30
7.5225th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
6.8730th/30
5.478th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.9329th/30
12.745th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.293rd/30
18.944th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.418th/30
Opponent
45.09%4th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.92%13th/30
13.1413th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.5619th/30
37.2617th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
39.0824th/30
35.26%7th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.69%3rd/30
28.128th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.6321st/30
54.2424th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.9817th/30
51.84%4th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.93%21st/30
16.501st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.1713th/30
20.861st/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.5515th/30
79.09%21st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.16%4th/30
10.403rd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3013th/30
32.4112th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.049th/30
7.736th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.957th/30
4.579th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7714th/30
12.4328th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
11.3730th/30
20.4519th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.8229th/30
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