CHA117
FINAL
86BKN
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Charlotte Hornets vs Brooklyn Nets — Win Probability

FINAL
Charlotte Hornets logo
Charlotte Hornets
39-36
117
VS
Brooklyn Nets logo
Brooklyn Nets
18-57
86
Model expected score: Charlotte Hornets 117.2 – Brooklyn Nets 110.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHA
  • Brandon MillerDay-To-Day
  • Moussa DiabateDay-To-Day
  • Grant WilliamsOut
  • Kon KnueppelOut
  • Dennis SchroderOut
BKN
  • Mikel Brown Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Grant NelsonDay-To-Day
  • Egor DeminOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hornets 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hornets won by 31
COMBINED SCORE
203

Margin of Victory — Brooklyn Nets (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
68%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
8%
Won by 8-14
10%
Won by 15-21
5%
Won by 21+
3%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 203.

O/U LINE 210
83% over17% under ✓
O/U LINE 220
66% over34% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
12% over88% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
5% over95% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon MillerSF
20.2
LaMelo BallPG
20.1
Kon KnueppelSF
18.5
Miles BridgesPF
17.1
Collin SextonSG
14.2
BKN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Michael Porter Jr.SF
24.2
Cam ThomasSG
15.6
Noah ClowneyPF
12.3
Nic ClaxtonC
11.7
Egor DëminPG
10.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHA
116.09
13th / 30
Points
BKN
106.04
30th / 30
CHA
46.18
5th / 30
Rebounds
BKN
39.57
30th / 30
CHA
26.37
14th / 30
Assists
BKN
25.13
24th / 30
CHA
96.68
26th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
BKN
96.47
27th / 30
CHA
55.17%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
BKN
52.09%
30th / 30
CHA
12.87%
24th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
BKN
13.87%
29th / 30
CHA
30.46%
4th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
BKN
24.20%
20th / 30
CHA
.249
22nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
BKN
.273
13th / 30
CHA
120.08
5th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
109.92
30th / 30
CHA
115.24
12th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
BKN
119.69
25th / 30
CHA
+4.85
6th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
BKN
-9.77
28th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.03%25th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.30%30th/30
16.791st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.6713th/30
44.343rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.117th/30
37.88%3rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.07%28th/30
25.4928th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
25.1530th/30
47.5328th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
47.5229th/30
53.64%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.93%29th/30
18.7115th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.6216th/30
22.8919th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.9416th/30
81.75%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.78%17th/30
13.197th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.9419th/30
34.584th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.0830th/30
7.2428th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.2219th/30
4.6118th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.4522nd/30
15.0526th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.8129th/30
19.8814th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.0129th/30
Opponent
46.65%10th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.38%29th/30
13.1614th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.818th/30
36.7714th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.842nd/30
35.79%18th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
37.85%30th/30
29.2218th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.5726th/30
54.0723rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.0022nd/30
54.04%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.61%25th/30
17.316th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.1327th/30
21.533rd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.8526th/30
80.40%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.89%11th/30
10.362nd/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.675th/30
30.113rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.2627th/30
8.5215th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.6328th/30
4.6410th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.4125th/30
12.5825th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.9017th/30
20.5820th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.2717th/30
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