ORL87
FINAL
139TOR
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Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors — Win Probability

FINAL
Orlando Magic logo
Orlando Magic
38-33
87
VS
Toronto Raptors logo
Toronto Raptors
41-31
139
Model expected score: Orlando Magic 114.0 – Toronto Raptors 116.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

ORL
  • Jalen SuggsOut
  • Jonathan IsaacOut
  • Paolo BancheroOut
  • Noah PendaOut
  • Izaiyah NelsonOut
TOR
  • Immanuel QuickleyDay-To-Day
  • Collin Murray-BoylesDay-To-Day
  • Scottie BarnesDay-To-Day
  • Nate BittleOut
  • Kawhi LeonardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Raptors 60%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Raptors won by 52
COMBINED SCORE
226

Margin of Victory — Toronto Raptors (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
43%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 226.

O/U LINE 210
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 220
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
15% over85% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
6% over94% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

ORL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Paolo BancheroPF
22.2
Franz WagnerSF
20.6
Desmond BaneSG
20.1
Anthony BlackPG
15.0
Jalen SuggsPG
13.8
TOR
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Brandon IngramSF
21.5
RJ BarrettSF
19.3
Scottie BarnesPF
18.1
Immanuel QuickleyPG
16.4
Jakob PoeltlC
10.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
ORL
115.34
16th / 30
Points
TOR
114.32
21st / 30
ORL
43.16
T-19th / 30
Rebounds
TOR
42.32
23rd / 30
ORL
26.30
15th / 30
Assists
TOR
29.34
3rd / 30
ORL
99.62
13th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
TOR
98.20
21st / 30
ORL
53.02%
27th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
TOR
54.28%
15th / 30
ORL
11.75%
12th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
TOR
11.57%
8th / 30
ORL
24.89%
19th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
TOR
25.52%
15th / 30
ORL
.304
2nd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
TOR
.259
18th / 30
ORL
115.78
18th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
116.41
16th / 30
ORL
115.58
13th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
TOR
114.01
6th / 30
ORL
+0.20
17th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
TOR
+2.41
11th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.32%21st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.83%9th/30
11.8824th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.6826th/30
34.5123rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.4025th/30
34.43%26th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.98%23rd/30
29.2113th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.613rd/30
54.198th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.125th/30
53.89%18th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.34%10th/30
21.721st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.1520th/30
26.982nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.4118th/30
80.49%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.54%20th/30
10.9521st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2616th/30
32.3816th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.8420th/30
8.4417th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.949th/30
4.7517th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9814th/30
13.3911th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.207th/30
20.8922nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.3627th/30
Opponent
47.80%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.54%10th/30
11.982nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9612th/30
33.833rd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.8112th/30
35.40%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.21%6th/30
30.0624th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.877th/30
54.1122nd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.917th/30
55.55%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.73%13th/30
19.5225th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3923rd/30
25.0025th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.4719th/30
78.08%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.25%23rd/30
10.594th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.1910th/30
33.0316th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8514th/30
8.0711th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.0912th/30
5.3322nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3824th/30
13.9616th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.365th/30
21.5626th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.8811th/30
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