MIA118
FINAL
135IND
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Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers — Win Probability

FINAL
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
39-34
118
VS
Indiana Pacers logo
Indiana Pacers
16-58
135
Model expected score: Miami Heat 120.0 – Indiana Pacers 117.4 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day
IND
  • Tyrese HaliburtonOut
  • Johnny FurphyOut
  • Ben SheppardOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Pacers won by 17
COMBINED SCORE
253

Margin of Victory — Indiana Pacers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
57%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
13%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
7%
Won by 21+
5%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 253.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 230
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
45% over ✓55% under
O/U LINE 250
25% over ✓75% under
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4
IND
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Pascal SiakamPF
24.0
Bennedict MathurinSF
17.8
Andrew NembhardPG
16.9
Aaron NesmithSF
13.8
Jarace WalkerPF
11.6

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIA
120.25
2nd / 30
Points
IND
112.21
27th / 30
MIA
46.52
3rd / 30
Rebounds
IND
41.69
26th / 30
MIA
28.65
6th / 30
Assists
IND
27.20
13th / 30
MIA
103.13
1st / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
IND
100.60
8th / 30
MIA
53.65%
20th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
IND
53.15%
24th / 30
MIA
11.21%
4th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
IND
12.19%
15th / 30
MIA
25.35%
16th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
IND
21.74%
29th / 30
MIA
.270
14th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
IND
.256
19th / 30
MIA
116.61
15th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
111.55
28th / 30
MIA
114.36
9th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
IND
119.90
26th / 30
MIA
+2.25
12th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
IND
-8.35
27th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.44%19th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.73%27th/30
13.0618th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.1317th/30
36.5617th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.0415th/30
35.71%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.46%19th/30
29.0315th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.3223rd/30
54.069th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.4119th/30
53.70%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.13%26th/30
19.3812th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.5122nd/30
24.4213th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.6422nd/30
79.35%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.34%22nd/30
11.5612th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.7826th/30
33.5510th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.6621st/30
8.6513th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.2029th/30
4.1427th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6019th/30
12.805th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.6613th/30
18.443rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.0925th/30
Opponent
46.27%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.09%27th/30
13.4517th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.861st/30
38.0222nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
33.371st/30
35.36%9th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.54%13th/30
28.209th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.1330th/30
51.9712th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
56.2430th/30
54.25%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.13%26th/30
17.628th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.0526th/30
21.845th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.9827th/30
80.70%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.19%5th/30
11.2211th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.158th/30
34.0426th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.2230th/30
7.695th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.998th/30
4.8216th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.7213th/30
14.2113th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.7024th/30
19.8610th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.9712th/30
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