MIL108
FINAL
105PHX
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Phoenix Suns — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
28-41
108
VS
Phoenix Suns logo
Phoenix Suns
39-30
105
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 109.8 – Phoenix Suns 117.1 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
PHX
  • Jordan GoodwinOut
  • Mark WilliamsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Suns 73%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Bucks won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
213

Margin of Victory — Phoenix Suns (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
30%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
17%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 213.

O/U LINE 210
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 220
64% over36% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
44% over56% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
25% over75% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
11% over89% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
4% over96% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9
PHX
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Devin BookerSG
26.1
Dillon BrooksSF
20.2
Jalen GreenSG
17.8
Grayson AllenSG
16.5
Collin GillespiePG
12.7

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIL
110.99
28th / 30
Points
PHX
112.13
26th / 30
MIL
40.89
28th / 30
Rebounds
PHX
42.96
21st / 30
MIL
25.77
17th / 30
Assists
PHX
24.75
27th / 30
MIL
97.38
23rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
PHX
96.59
26th / 30
MIL
56.55%
3rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
PHX
53.51%
20th / 30
MIL
12.92%
24th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
PHX
12.03%
13th / 30
MIL
20.47%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
PHX
28.73%
7th / 30
MIL
.227
28th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
PHX
.225
29th / 30
MIL
113.97
25th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
116.09
16th / 30
MIL
119.34
25th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
PHX
115.10
12th / 30
MIL
-5.37
25th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
PHX
+0.99
16th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.93%8th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.29%27th/30
15.155th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
15.314th/30
39.1110th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
42.274th/30
38.75%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.22%10th/30
26.9625th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
26.8626th/30
48.7626th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.8523rd/30
55.29%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.82%28th/30
14.5830th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.4327th/30
19.9729th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
20.9527th/30
73.03%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.43%14th/30
8.8930th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.346th/30
33.0912th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.1327th/30
7.5824th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.082nd/30
4.0528th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.1726th/30
14.3522nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.0015th/30
20.2118th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.6028th/30
Opponent
46.90%13th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.01%16th/30
15.1730th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.605th/30
40.9929th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.5410th/30
37.01%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.48%1st/30
27.305th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.9716th/30
49.575th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.9012th/30
55.08%16th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.83%22nd/30
19.2318th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3522nd/30
24.7822nd/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.6621st/30
77.62%7th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.47%17th/30
11.5316th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.3728th/30
34.5329th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.1017th/30
8.5416th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.1212th/30
4.203rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6810th/30
12.6526th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.113rd/30
18.415th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.397th/30
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