CLE111
FINAL
106NO
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs New Orleans Pelicans — Win Probability

FINAL
Cleveland Cavaliers logo
Cleveland Cavaliers
43-27
111
VS
New Orleans Pelicans logo
New Orleans Pelicans
25-46
106
Model expected score: Cleveland Cavaliers 119.7 – New Orleans Pelicans 118.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CLE
  • Sam MerrillDay-To-Day
  • Jaylon TysonOut
NO
  • Trendon WatfordDay-To-Day
  • Trey Murphy IIIDay-To-Day
  • Zion WilliamsonDay-To-Day
  • Yves MissiOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Cavaliers 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Cavaliers won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — New Orleans Pelicans (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
54%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14
14%
Won by 15-21
8%
Won by 21+
6%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 220
83% over17% under ✓
O/U LINE 230
66% over34% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
26% over74% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
12% over88% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CLE
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Donovan MitchellSG
27.9
James HardenPG
20.5
Evan MobleyPF
18.2
Darius GarlandPG
18.0
Jarrett AllenC
15.4
NO
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Trey Murphy IIISF
21.5
Zion WilliamsonPF
21.0
Saddiq BeySF
17.7
Dejounte MurrayPG
16.7
Jeremiah FearsPG
14.3

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CLE
118.97
3rd / 30
Points
NO
115.47
15th / 30
CLE
44.51
11th / 30
Rebounds
NO
44.06
14th / 30
CLE
28.25
9th / 30
Assists
NO
25.25
21st / 30
CLE
99.56
14th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
NO
99.98
11th / 30
CLE
55.74%
7th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
NO
52.85%
26th / 30
CLE
11.73%
10th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
NO
11.75%
12th / 30
CLE
27.10%
9th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
NO
27.20%
8th / 30
CLE
.261
18th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
NO
.283
8th / 30
CLE
119.49
6th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
115.49
20th / 30
CLE
115.19
13th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
NO
119.17
24th / 30
CLE
+4.30
6th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
NO
-3.68
22nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.72%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.59%16th/30
14.577th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.2927th/30
40.526th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
32.5626th/30
35.96%13th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.68%22nd/30
28.7617th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.765th/30
50.2924th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
57.694th/30
57.19%2nd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.31%25th/30
18.2620th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.107th/30
23.6717th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.567th/30
77.17%21st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.64%13th/30
12.029th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.298th/30
32.6814th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.7720th/30
8.6914th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.899th/30
5.1810th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.1012th/30
13.4511th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.5212th/30
19.8514th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.8413th/30
Opponent
46.26%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.40%20th/30
13.9224th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.2026th/30
37.7920th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
40.9128th/30
36.84%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.70%3rd/30
27.446th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.1718th/30
51.6310th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
50.597th/30
53.15%6th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.66%29th/30
18.5517th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.2414th/30
23.4814th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.6016th/30
78.98%22nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.28%6th/30
11.4915th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
12.7129th/30
32.3510th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.9114th/30
8.6718th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.999th/30
4.477th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.7227th/30
14.6010th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.8117th/30
20.5721st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.2116th/30
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