OKC132
FINAL
111WSH
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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Washington Wizards — Win Probability

FINAL
Oklahoma City Thunder logo
Oklahoma City Thunder
54-14
132
VS
Washington Wizards logo
Washington Wizards
16-53
111
Model expected score: Oklahoma City Thunder 122.1 – Washington Wizards 110.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

OKC
  • Jaylin WilliamsOut
  • Thomas SorberOut
  • Cason WallaceOut
  • Chet HolmgrenOut
  • Jalen WilliamsOut
WSH
  • Bilal CoulibalyDay-To-Day
  • Tristan VukcevicOut
  • Reece BeekmanOut
  • Justin ChampagnieOut
  • Jamir WatkinsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Thunder 85%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Thunder won by 21
COMBINED SCORE
243

Margin of Victory — Washington Wizards (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
79%
Won by 1-3
6%
Won by 4-7
6%
Won by 8-14
6%
Won by 15-21
3%
Won by 21+
1%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 243.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
75% over ✓25% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
56% over ✓44% under
O/U LINE 240
35% over ✓65% under
O/U LINE 250
18% over82% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

OKC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG
31.1
Chet HolmgrenPF
17.1
Jalen WilliamsSG
17.1
Ajay MitchellSG
13.6
Aaron WigginsSG
9.4
WSH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
CJ McCollumSG
18.8
Alex SarrC
16.3
Trae YoungPG
15.2
Kyshawn GeorgeSF
14.8
Tre JohnsonSG
12.2

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
OKC
118.68
5th / 30
Points
WSH
112.50
25th / 30
OKC
44.06
13th / 30
Rebounds
WSH
42.43
24th / 30
OKC
25.46
20th / 30
Assists
WSH
25.01
25th / 30
OKC
99.47
15th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
WSH
100.94
6th / 30
OKC
55.76%
6th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
WSH
53.28%
22nd / 30
OKC
10.74%
2nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
WSH
13.33%
28th / 30
OKC
22.13%
28th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
WSH
24.44%
21st / 30
OKC
.266
15th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
WSH
.238
25th / 30
OKC
119.31
7th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
111.45
28th / 30
OKC
108.11
1st / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
WSH
122.66
30th / 30
OKC
+11.20
1st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
WSH
-11.21
30th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.15%5th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.04%22nd/30
13.6215th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9419th/30
37.8614th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.1219th/30
35.98%12th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.82%15th/30
29.479th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.1521st/30
51.6216th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.1310th/30
57.08%3rd/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
52.98%27th/30
19.5110th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.3528th/30
23.7916th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.2725th/30
82.02%2nd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.85%23rd/30
9.5629th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.1020th/30
34.733rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
30.9429th/30
9.784th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.6723rd/30
5.546th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.764th/30
12.021st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
15.1726th/30
19.196th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.2225th/30
Opponent
43.45%1st/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.04%25th/30
14.3027th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.4518th/30
39.1625th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.0016th/30
36.51%23rd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.34%22nd/30
24.231st/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.5126th/30
49.514th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.5024th/30
48.93%1st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.99%23rd/30
16.753rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
21.3029th/30
22.417th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.7329th/30
74.73%1st/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.67%27th/30
12.0525th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.3930th/30
33.6321st/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.3128th/30
7.554th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.8129th/30
4.335th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.3423rd/30
16.142nd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.8422nd/30
21.1125th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
17.661st/30
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