UTAH111
FINAL
116SAC
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Utah Jazz vs Sacramento Kings — Win Probability

FINAL
Utah Jazz logo
Utah Jazz
20-47
111
VS
Sacramento Kings logo
Sacramento Kings
17-51
116
Model expected score: Utah Jazz 119.3 – Sacramento Kings 121.5 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

UTAH
  • Lauri MarkkanenOut
  • Keyonte GeorgeOut
  • Jusuf NurkicOut
  • Jaren Jackson Jr.Out
SAC
  • Maxime RaynaudOut
  • Ben SimmonsOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Kings 57%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Kings won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
227

Margin of Victory — Sacramento Kings (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
44%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 227.

O/U LINE 210
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 220
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 230
71% over29% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
52% over48% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
31% over69% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
16% over84% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

UTAH
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Lauri MarkkanenPF
26.7
Keyonte GeorgePG
23.6
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
22.3
Brice SensabaughSF
14.9
Walker KesslerC
14.4
SAC
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Zach LaVineSG
19.2
DeMar DeRozanPF
18.4
Domantas SabonisC
15.8
Russell WestbrookSF
15.2
Keegan MurrayPF
14.0

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
UTAH
117.26
8th / 30
Points
SAC
110.83
29th / 30
UTAH
43.79
15th / 30
Rebounds
SAC
42.10
26th / 30
UTAH
29.35
2nd / 30
Assists
SAC
25.41
20th / 30
UTAH
101.84
2nd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SAC
99.44
16th / 30
UTAH
53.66%
19th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SAC
52.15%
30th / 30
UTAH
12.98%
27th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SAC
12.12%
13th / 30
UTAH
26.36%
11th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SAC
25.12%
18th / 30
UTAH
.283
9th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SAC
.256
21st / 30
UTAH
115.15
21st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
111.45
27th / 30
UTAH
122.64
30th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SAC
121.24
28th / 30
UTAH
-7.49
26th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SAC
-9.79
29th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.50%18th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.53%16th/30
12.6921st/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
10.0930th/30
36.4617th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
30.0530th/30
34.81%21st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
33.56%30th/30
28.5219th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
31.643rd/30
52.1713th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
59.622nd/30
54.66%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.07%27th/30
20.038th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.9121st/30
25.1010th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.0021st/30
79.80%9th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.88%18th/30
11.7112th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2518th/30
31.2926th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.0929th/30
8.4916th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3518th/30
3.5830th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.5521st/30
14.8725th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.7614th/30
21.2125th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.9214th/30
Opponent
48.88%27th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.27%29th/30
15.1029th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.3517th/30
40.7827th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.309th/30
37.04%29th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.77%25th/30
28.3610th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.8227th/30
48.141st/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
53.3619th/30
58.91%30th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.77%29th/30
20.6128th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.5424th/30
26.5428th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.9725th/30
77.64%8th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
78.28%14th/30
11.6518th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3513th/30
32.7212th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.5420th/30
9.0326th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.7621st/30
5.7927th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.8816th/30
13.4919th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.6318th/30
20.1013th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.416th/30
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