MEM110
FINAL
126DET
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Memphis Grizzlies vs Detroit Pistons — Win Probability

FINAL
Memphis Grizzlies logo
Memphis Grizzlies
23-42
110
VS
Detroit Pistons logo
Detroit Pistons
46-19
126
Model expected score: Memphis Grizzlies 111.5 – Detroit Pistons 121.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MEM
  • Isaiah StewartDay-To-Day
  • Quinten PostDay-To-Day
  • Scotty Pippen Jr.Out
  • Richie SaundersOut
DET
  • Isaiah JoeOut
  • Jalen DurenOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Pistons 81%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Pistons won by 16
COMBINED SCORE
236

Margin of Victory — Detroit Pistons (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
23%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21 ← actual result
17%
Won by 21+
22%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 236.

O/U LINE 210
89% over ✓11% under
O/U LINE 220
76% over ✓24% under
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
57% over ✓43% under
O/U LINE 240
36% over64% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
19% over81% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
8% over92% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MEM
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Ty JeromeSG
19.7
Ja MorantPG
19.5
Jaren Jackson Jr.C
19.2
Dariq WhiteheadSF
16.3
Santi AldamaPF
14.0
DET
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cade CunninghamPG
23.9
Jalen DurenC
19.5
Tobias HarrisPF
13.3
Duncan RobinsonSG
12.2
Ausar ThompsonSF
9.9

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MEM
115.71
15th / 30
Points
DET
117.36
8th / 30
MEM
43.56
17th / 30
Rebounds
DET
45.88
7th / 30
MEM
28.55
7th / 30
Assists
DET
26.98
12th / 30
MEM
100.96
7th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
DET
99.13
19th / 30
MEM
53.58%
21st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
DET
54.07%
15th / 30
MEM
12.74%
22nd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
DET
12.25%
16th / 30
MEM
26.00%
12th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
DET
30.90%
3rd / 30
MEM
.258
20th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
DET
.294
5th / 30
MEM
114.61
22nd / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
118.40
10th / 30
MEM
117.30
20th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
DET
110.59
2nd / 30
MEM
-2.69
21st / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
DET
+7.81
2nd / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.06%22nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.97%6th/30
13.5216th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
11.0728th/30
38.0014th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
31.7928th/30
35.58%18th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.81%22nd/30
27.8522nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
32.452nd/30
51.8415th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
58.923rd/30
53.73%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.07%13th/30
18.3418th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.306th/30
23.1620th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.704th/30
79.20%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.02%26th/30
11.5613th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
13.414th/30
31.5923rd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8813th/30
8.6315th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
10.621st/30
5.0413th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
6.471st/30
14.6023rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.3122nd/30
20.0917th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
22.4530th/30
Opponent
47.53%24th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
44.10%2nd/30
13.7822nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.847th/30
38.1522nd/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.9714th/30
36.11%19th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.73%3rd/30
28.9314th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
24.962nd/30
51.7210th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
48.742nd/30
55.95%24th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.21%3rd/30
18.1012th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
22.1530th/30
23.1011th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
27.7930th/30
78.36%15th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.70%27th/30
12.2227th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4514th/30
32.8815th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
29.972nd/30
8.6620th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9323rd/30
5.0919th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.9030th/30
14.759th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
16.311st/30
19.9312th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.9229th/30
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