CHI130
FINAL
142LAL
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Chicago Bulls vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Chicago Bulls logo
Chicago Bulls
27-38
130
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
40-24
142
Model expected score: Chicago Bulls 115.2 – Los Angeles Lakers 121.9 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

CHI
  • Norman PowellDay-To-Day
  • Zach CollinsDay-To-Day
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 73%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
272

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
32%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
15%
Won by 21+
16%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 272.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
65% over ✓35% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
44% over ✓56% under
O/U LINE 250
25% over ✓75% under
O/U LINE 260
12% over ✓88% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

CHI
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Coby WhiteSG
18.6
Collin SextonSG
17.5
Josh GiddeyPG
17.0
Nikola VučevićC
16.9
Matas BuzelisPF
16.3
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
33.5
Austin ReavesSG
23.3
LeBron JamesSF
20.9
Deandre AytonC
12.5
Rui HachimuraPF
11.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
CHI
115.86
12th / 30
Points
LAL
116.33
11th / 30
CHI
45.05
9th / 30
Rebounds
LAL
41.00
28th / 30
CHI
28.71
5th / 30
Assists
LAL
25.59
18th / 30
CHI
101.52
4th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAL
97.86
22nd / 30
CHI
54.99%
11th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAL
57.08%
2nd / 30
CHI
12.61%
19th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAL
12.63%
20th / 30
CHI
23.06%
26th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAL
24.02%
22nd / 30
CHI
.241
23rd / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAL
.312
1st / 30
CHI
114.13
24th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
118.88
8th / 30
CHI
118.43
23rd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
117.64
21st / 30
CHI
-4.30
22nd / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAL
+1.24
15th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.87%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.88%1st/30
14.408th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.3923rd/30
39.549th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.5423rd/30
36.43%8th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.86%16th/30
27.1524th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.537th/30
49.1226th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.5018th/30
55.27%10th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
59.29%1st/30
16.6325th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.654th/30
21.3326th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.852nd/30
77.96%17th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
76.93%24th/30
10.1024th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.8228th/30
34.275th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.0818th/30
7.3327th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3916th/30
4.9415th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2624th/30
14.1517th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.1518th/30
18.252nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.094th/30
Opponent
47.37%20th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.43%26th/30
13.8122nd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.2816th/30
37.3419th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.2116th/30
36.97%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.71%14th/30
29.8323rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.1926th/30
54.7927th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.5614th/30
54.45%12th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.44%27th/30
17.346th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.408th/30
22.307th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.955th/30
77.78%10th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.27%22nd/30
10.987th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.998th/30
33.7122nd/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.044th/30
8.7221st/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.9626th/30
5.3623rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.701st/30
11.8429th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2413th/30
18.192nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.5426th/30
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