DEN136
FINAL
131SA
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Denver Nuggets vs San Antonio Spurs — Win Probability

FINAL
Denver Nuggets logo
Denver Nuggets
40-26
136
VS
San Antonio Spurs logo
San Antonio Spurs
46-17
131
Model expected score: Denver Nuggets 115.1 – San Antonio Spurs 121.6 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DEN
  • Julian StrawtherOut
SA
  • Devin VassellDay-To-Day
  • Tobias HarrisOut
  • Jayden QuaintanceOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Spurs 72%
ACTUAL RESULT
✕ Nuggets won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
267

Margin of Victory — San Antonio Spurs (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost ← actual result
32%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
19%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+
15%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 267.

O/U LINE 210
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 220
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 230
64% over ✓36% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
43% over ✓57% under
O/U LINE 250
24% over ✓76% under
O/U LINE 260
11% over ✓89% under

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DEN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Nikola JokićC
27.7
Jamal MurrayPG
25.4
Aaron GordonPF
16.2
Peyton WatsonSF
14.6
Cameron JohnsonSF
12.2
SA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Victor WembanyamaC
25.0
De'Aaron FoxPG
18.6
Stephon CastlePG
16.7
Devin VassellSG
13.9
Julian ChampagnieSF
11.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DEN
120.63
1st / 30
Points
SA
118.81
3rd / 30
DEN
43.28
19th / 30
Rebounds
SA
46.31
4th / 30
DEN
28.12
9th / 30
Assists
SA
27.40
11th / 30
DEN
98.46
20th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
SA
99.57
15th / 30
DEN
57.16%
1st / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
SA
55.52%
7th / 30
DEN
11.03%
3rd / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
SA
11.31%
4th / 30
DEN
23.57%
24th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
SA
25.58%
15th / 30
DEN
.304
4th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
SA
.281
11th / 30
DEN
122.51
1st / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
119.32
5th / 30
DEN
118.33
22nd / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
SA
112.61
3rd / 30
DEN
+4.18
7th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
SA
+6.72
4th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
49.28%2nd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.92%6th/30
13.9212th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.6415th/30
35.6221st/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.0813th/30
39.06%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.83%17th/30
29.568th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.3710th/30
52.6011th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.6716th/30
56.20%8th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
56.83%4th/30
21.653rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.679th/30
26.794th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
25.2410th/30
80.81%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.91%18th/30
9.8427th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.2718th/30
34.128th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
35.242nd/30
7.0030th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.6225th/30
4.0229th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.448th/30
12.403rd/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.864th/30
19.216th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.175th/30
Opponent
46.97%16th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.21%4th/30
13.6720th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.9811th/30
38.8524th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.5810th/30
35.19%10th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.49%12th/30
29.5722nd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.3810th/30
53.2217th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.9128th/30
55.57%21st/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
51.68%4th/30
18.1612th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.913rd/30
23.5314th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.361st/30
77.19%3rd/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.16%21st/30
11.4816th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.856th/30
31.919th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.8013th/30
8.0610th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.775th/30
4.7714th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.538th/30
11.6130th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
12.6825th/30
22.0130th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
20.6020th/30
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