MIL105
FINAL
112MIA
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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat — Win Probability

FINAL
Milwaukee Bucks logo
Milwaukee Bucks
27-37
105
VS
Miami Heat logo
Miami Heat
37-28
112
Model expected score: Milwaukee Bucks 111.8 – Miami Heat 122.7 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIL
  • Tyler HerroDay-To-Day
MIA
  • Giannis AntetokounmpoDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Heat 80%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Heat won by 7
COMBINED SCORE
217

Margin of Victory — Miami Heat (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
10%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
23%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 217.

O/U LINE 210
90% over ✓10% under
O/U LINE 220
78% over22% under ✓
O/U LINE 230 MODEL'S PICK
59% over41% under ✓
O/U LINE 240
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
21% over79% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
9% over91% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Giannis AntetokounmpoPF
27.6
Kevin Porter Jr.PG
17.4
Ryan RollinsPG
17.3
Kyle KuzmaPF
13.0
Myles TurnerC
11.9
MIA
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Norman PowellSG
21.7
Tyler HerroSG
20.5
Bam AdebayoC
20.1
Andrew WigginsSF
15.4
Pelle LarssonSG
11.4

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIL
111.02
28th / 30
Points
MIA
120.46
2nd / 30
MIL
41.06
27th / 30
Rebounds
MIA
47.27
2nd / 30
MIL
25.92
17th / 30
Assists
MIA
28.69
6th / 30
MIL
97.54
23rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
MIA
103.27
1st / 30
MIL
56.37%
3rd / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
MIA
53.62%
19th / 30
MIL
12.87%
24th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
MIA
11.37%
5th / 30
MIL
20.47%
30th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
MIA
25.95%
13th / 30
MIL
.226
28th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
MIA
.269
14th / 30
MIL
113.82
25th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
116.64
13th / 30
MIL
118.84
24th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
MIA
112.84
4th / 30
MIL
-5.02
25th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
MIA
+3.80
9th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
47.89%7th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
46.45%19th/30
14.946th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.0217th/30
38.7610th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.0618th/30
38.54%2nd/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.11%12th/30
27.2123rd/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.1412th/30
49.2625th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
54.708th/30
55.24%11th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.26%23rd/30
14.5930th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
19.3111th/30
19.9229th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
24.4414th/30
73.24%30th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.01%11th/30
8.9130th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.8411th/30
33.1911th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.9310th/30
7.6324th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.8211th/30
4.0728th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.1925th/30
14.2921st/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.025th/30
20.2818th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.253rd/30
Opponent
46.68%11th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
45.69%6th/30
15.0529th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.2815th/30
40.8728th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.1522nd/30
36.82%25th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
34.81%4th/30
27.165th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
27.918th/30
49.564th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.0012th/30
54.81%13th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
53.67%9th/30
19.3723rd/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.184th/30
24.8624th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.403rd/30
77.92%13th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
80.28%28th/30
11.4715th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.3612th/30
34.6229th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
33.7723rd/30
8.6316th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
7.836th/30
4.243rd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
5.0018th/30
12.6526th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.3711th/30
18.333rd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.8011th/30
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