MIN106
FINAL
120LAL
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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Lakers — Win Probability

FINAL
Minnesota Timberwolves logo
Minnesota Timberwolves
40-24
106
VS
Los Angeles Lakers logo
Los Angeles Lakers
39-24
120
Model expected score: Minnesota Timberwolves 116.3 – Los Angeles Lakers 118.8 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

MIN
  • Anthony EdwardsOut
  • Donte DiVincenzoOut
LAL
  • Austin ReavesDay-To-Day
  • Quentin GrimesDay-To-Day

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Lakers 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Lakers won by 14
COMBINED SCORE
226

Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Lakers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
43%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
10%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 226.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
61% over39% under ✓
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
40% over60% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
22% over78% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

MIN
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Anthony EdwardsSG
28.8
Julius RandlePF
21.1
Jaden McDanielsPF
14.8
Ayo DosunmuSG
14.4
Donte DiVincenzoSG
12.2
LAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Luka DončićPG
33.5
Austin ReavesSG
23.3
LeBron JamesSF
20.9
Deandre AytonC
12.5
Rui HachimuraPF
11.5

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
MIN
118.42
6th / 30
Points
LAL
115.94
T-11th / 30
MIN
44.58
11th / 30
Rebounds
LAL
41.00
28th / 30
MIN
26.12
16th / 30
Assists
LAL
25.51
19th / 30
MIN
100.34
10th / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
LAL
97.80
22nd / 30
MIN
56.13%
4th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
LAL
56.95%
2nd / 30
MIN
12.25%
17th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
LAL
12.72%
20th / 30
MIN
25.88%
13th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
LAL
23.88%
22nd / 30
MIN
.291
6th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
LAL
.314
1st / 30
MIN
118.01
11th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
118.54
9th / 30
MIN
114.15
10th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
LAL
117.47
21st / 30
MIN
+3.86
8th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
LAL
+1.07
15th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
48.26%3rd/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
49.78%1st/30
13.8813th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.3223rd/30
37.5215th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
34.5323rd/30
36.98%5th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.67%18th/30
28.6416th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.427th/30
50.5823rd/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.3318th/30
56.62%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
59.27%1st/30
19.1013th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
20.754th/30
25.626th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
26.952nd/30
74.57%28th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.00%22nd/30
11.1021st/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
9.7528th/30
33.3311th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.1718th/30
8.7513th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.3816th/30
5.645th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.2624th/30
13.8815th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2419th/30
21.2525th/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.165th/30
Opponent
46.29%9th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
48.34%26th/30
12.314th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
13.2614th/30
34.384th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
37.2315th/30
35.82%17th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.61%14th/30
28.9214th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
30.1125th/30
54.6926th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.4814th/30
52.87%5th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
57.37%27th/30
19.3825th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
17.488th/30
25.1026th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
22.055th/30
77.21%5th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.24%22nd/30
11.249th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.988th/30
31.806th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
31.084th/30
8.1111th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.0026th/30
3.802nd/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
3.711st/30
14.2014th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.2413th/30
20.6722nd/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
21.6027th/30
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