DAL112
FINAL
124ATL
← back to predictions

Dallas Mavericks vs Atlanta Hawks — Win Probability

FINAL
Dallas Mavericks logo
Dallas Mavericks
22-42
112
VS
Atlanta Hawks logo
Atlanta Hawks
33-31
124
Model expected score: Dallas Mavericks 112.4 – Atlanta Hawks 123.3 (no market line posted for this game yet -- see Margin/Totals below)

Injury Report

Live ESPN injury status for both teams, polled fresh each run.

DAL
  • Morez Johnson Jr.Day-To-Day
  • Sergio de LarreaOut
  • Tarik BiberovicOut
  • Dereck Lively IIOut
ATL
  • Asa NewellOut
  • Keshon GilbertOut
  • Mouhamed GueyeOut
  • Henri VeesaarOut

Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Hawks 83%
ACTUAL RESULT
✓ Hawks won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
236

Margin of Victory — Atlanta Hawks (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before tipoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost
22%
Won by 1-3
7%
Won by 4-7
10%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
19%
Won by 15-21
18%
Won by 21+
24%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined score across 100,000 simulated versions of this game, against six fixed lines (no market total posted for this game yet -- the highlighted line is this model's own pick, not a sportsbook number). The real combined score was 236.

O/U LINE 210
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 220
79% over ✓21% under
O/U LINE 230
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 240 MODEL'S PICK
41% over59% under ✓
O/U LINE 250
23% over77% under ✓
O/U LINE 260
10% over90% under ✓

Starter Grades

Season-to-date Basketball-Reference stats for each team's starters, minimum 25% of that team's games started.

DAL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Cooper FlaggSF
21.0
Anthony DavisPF
20.4
Naji MarshallSF
15.2
P.J. WashingtonPF
14.2
Max ChristieSG
12.3
ATL
Points Per GamePoints scored per game.
Player Efficiency RatingPlayer Efficiency Rating (John Hollinger) -- a per-minute rating summing a player's positive contributions and subtracting the negative, league-adjusted so 15.0 = average.
Win Shares Per 48 MinutesAn estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes (league average is approximately .100).
Jalen JohnsonSF
22.5
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerSG
20.8
Trae YoungPG
19.3
CJ McCollumPG
18.7
Kristaps PorziņģisC
17.1

Team Grades

Both teams' own season-to-date production, ranked against the rest of the league -- Core Four, Four Factors, and Net Efficiency, computed from real box scores (regular season only).

Ranked all 30 teams
DAL
112.95
23rd / 30
Points
ATL
117.82
7th / 30
DAL
44.69
10th / 30
Rebounds
ATL
43.22
20th / 30
DAL
24.89
24th / 30
Assists
ATL
30.48
1st / 30
DAL
101.67
3rd / 30
Pace
PaceAn estimate of the number of possessions per 48 minutes by a team.
ATL
101.45
5th / 30
DAL
52.79%
26th / 30
eFG%
Effective Field Goal Percentage(FG + 0.5 x 3P) / FGA. Weights a made 3 as worth 1.5 made 2s, since it's worth one more point.
ATL
55.13%
10th / 30
DAL
12.47%
18th / 30
TOV%
Turnover PercentageEstimated turnovers per 100 plays.
ATL
11.73%
11th / 30
DAL
22.62%
27th / 30
OREB%
Offensive Rebound PercentageEstimated percentage of available offensive rebounds grabbed.
ATL
23.36%
25th / 30
DAL
.286
7th / 30
FT Rate
Free Throw Attempt RateFTA / FGA -- how often a team gets to the line relative to its field goal attempts.
ATL
.235
26th / 30
DAL
111.10
29th / 30
Off Rating
Offensive RatingPoints produced per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
116.14
15th / 30
DAL
115.88
16th / 30
Def Rating
Defensive RatingPoints allowed per 100 possessions (Dean Oliver method), team-pace-adjusted.
ATL
115.53
14th / 30
DAL
-4.78
24th / 30
Net Rating
Net RatingOffensive Rating minus Defensive Rating -- point differential per 100 possessions, the single best metric for evaluating a team's true strength.
ATL
+0.61
17th / 30

Efficiency and Scoring per 100 possessions

Season-to-date shooting, rebounding, and ballhandling per 100 possessions.

"Team" is each team's own production. "Opponent" is what they allowed their opponent to average. Both ranked against all 30 teams.

Team
46.83%14th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.27%13th/30
10.4429th/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
14.239th/30
30.6729th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
38.5511th/30
34.04%28th/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
36.90%6th/30
30.576th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
28.5119th/30
56.906th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
51.8715th/30
53.72%20th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
54.97%14th/30
18.6417th/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
16.4427th/30
25.0712th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
21.2326th/30
74.35%29th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
77.43%21st/30
9.9325th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
10.4022nd/30
34.039th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
32.2017th/30
7.1929th/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
9.246th/30
5.1411th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.6619th/30
14.0416th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
13.258th/30
17.901st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
19.469th/30
Opponent
47.03%15th/30
FG%
Field Goal PercentageField Goals made / Field Goal Attempts.
47.34%20th/30
12.183rd/30
3P
3-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
12.929th/30
35.745th/30
3PA
3-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
36.217th/30
34.08%1st/30
3P%
3-Point Field Goal Percentage3-Point Field Goals made / 3-Point Field Goal Attempts.
35.68%15th/30
31.3529th/30
2P
2-Point Field GoalsPer 100 possessions.
29.2118th/30
56.8430th/30
2PA
2-Point Field Goal AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
52.7815th/30
55.17%17th/30
2P%
2-Point Field Goal Percentage2-Point Field Goals made / 2-Point Field Goal Attempts.
55.34%20th/30
16.631st/30
FT
Free ThrowsPer 100 possessions.
18.3514th/30
21.504th/30
FTA
Free Throw AttemptsPer 100 possessions.
23.1112th/30
77.34%6th/30
FT%
Free Throw PercentageFree Throws made / Free Throw Attempts.
79.40%24th/30
12.0325th/30
ORB
Offensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
11.4013th/30
33.9626th/30
DRB
Defensive ReboundsPer 100 possessions.
34.1427th/30
8.8722nd/30
STL
StealsPer 100 possessions.
8.5414th/30
5.1120th/30
BLK
BlocksPer 100 possessions.
4.9117th/30
12.1528th/30
TOV
TurnoversPer 100 possessions.
14.639th/30
20.6621st/30
PF
Personal FoulsPer 100 possessions.
18.202nd/30
Privacy PolicyTerms of Service